Key Takeaways
- Nebius fell 6% today after Democrats won Congress, and Texas Pacific Land fell too.
- Investors fear tighter data center rules, especially in Texas, where the governor-elect wants a moratorium on new ones.
- Nebius hasn’t disclosed a Texas site, and it trades at half its five-year average forward sales multiple.
- Its third-quarter report on Nov. 12 matters more to the stock than the election.
Nebius Group (NBIS) fell 6% today, even as the broader market rallied, after Democrats won both the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s midterms.
The selling hit the data center chain too, including Texas Pacific Land (TPL).
CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer warned on X this morning: “be careful with the Nebius/IRENs of the world.”
Wrong state for Nebius
Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race after calling for an immediate moratorium on new data centers, and Wells Fargo estimates the state holds 27% of planned US data center gigawatts.
That’s a real problem for IREN, which runs two campuses in Texas. Nebius hasn’t disclosed a Texas site: its US buildout runs through New Jersey, Missouri and Pennsylvania.
Texas Pacific Land has far more riding on the state, and it fell 14%. In the second quarter it agreed to supply land and water for Chevron’s Project Kilby data center hub and bought land in two more counties for its data center and power push. Still, CEO Tyler Glover credited its record quarter to oil and gas royalties and produced water, which a moratorium wouldn’t touch.
With no news of their own, Quanta Services (PWR) fell 12% and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) fell 15%. If Texas freezes new projects, how much of their data center work goes with it? Coherent (COHR) dropped 7%, though its optical parts ship wherever data centers get built.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Nebius. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius’ Analyst Ratings
The real test is Nov. 12
Nebius had already lost a third of its value in a month, and this morning Citi cut its target to $265 from $324, keeping its Buy rating.
Analysts expect revenue to multiply by 2028:
This year’s estimate rests on capacity already under way, so I’d expect slower permits to dent the 2027 and 2028 estimates first.
And the stock is far cheaper than it’s been:
Nebius traded at 5.4x forward sales on Monday, half its five-year average of 11x and far below its 32x peak in October 2025. At today’s price, it’s even lower.
Nebius reports third-quarter results on Nov. 12, and it needs to show annualized run-rate revenue climbing from $3.0 billion at June 30 toward the $7 billion to $9 billion it guides for December.
The way I see it, Nebius is getting sold for a Texas problem it doesn’t have. Of course, a Congress that paused construction nationwide would reach every US site it has.
So what is Nebius stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
