Key Stats for Spotify Stock
- Current Price: $583.66
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,050
- Street Target: ~$612
- Potential Total Return: ~80%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
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What Happened?
Analysts raised their Spotify Technology (SPOT) price targets on October 22 and 23, yet three of the new targets still sit below the stock’s closing price. Shares jumped 11.10% to $583.66 on October 22 after a third-quarter report that beat subscriber guidance and forecast fourth-quarter profit above estimates, on a day the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%. The move took the stock from about 9.5% below its 2025 year-end close of $580.71 to about 0.5% above it.
Three New Targets Already Trail the Stock
Benzinga’s October 23 roundup lists three changes: Cantor Fitzgerald to $550 from $490 and Rosenblatt to $576 from $527, both Neutral, and Guggenheim to $650 from $575 with a Buy. Cantor had cut its target to $490 from $530 on October 12, per TipRanks. Pivotal Research moved to $460 from $420 with a Hold, about 21% below the close, per TipRanks, which also reported Barclays at $650 and Wells Fargo at $660. Raymond James went to $625, per StreetInsider.
Whatever moved those targets, it was not a bigger revenue forecast. TIKR’s consensus for fiscal 2027 revenue rose only 0.31% between September 30 and October 23, to about €22.4 billion, while fiscal 2026 slipped 0.13%.
TIKR’s Street mean stood at $611.77 on October 22, about $28 above the close, within a range of $459.79 to $720.89. The rating mix shifted between September 30 and October 22, from 24 Buys, 8 Outperforms and 7 Holds to 22 Buys, 9 Outperforms and 9 Holds. The quarter itself missed on two lines: revenue by 0.2%, and GAAP earnings per share of €2.48 against €2.81, a gap TIKR’s earnings-day coverage traced to items below operating income.
Spotify’s Co-CEO Bets It Will Be the Last Subscription Users Cancel
Analyst Rich Greenfield asked on the call whether AI agents that compare prices and cancel unused subscriptions could turn Spotify into an interchangeable back-end pipe. Co-CEO Gustav Söderström answered that Spotify has run in the background of Google Maps and Waze for years and grew through it, because the business earns money even when its app is not on screen.
He said more than 100 million users use Spotify roughly 28 days a month, then added: “It’s a bold bet but I think on that list of things that you unsubscribe from, Spotify is going to be the last thing that you unsubscribe from.” That is a management prediction, not churn data, but heavy daily use is what an agent hunting for forgotten subscriptions would spare.
TIKR tracks 40 analysts on Spotify. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Spotify, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Spotify’s Analyst Ratings
Under 4% of the World Pays, and the Label Deals Come Up in 2027
Co-CEO Alex Norström put numbers on the runway: nearly 50% of Sweden’s population pays for Spotify, against 20% to 25% in the U.K. and Germany, about 11% in Latin America, and under 4% globally. The nearer risk sits with the labels. A question from Michael Morris read on the call noted that the Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group agreements reach their two-year mark in the first quarter of 2027. Norström called it a recurring two-year cycle and declined to discuss terms. Morris, Guggenheim’s analyst, raised his target the next day anyway.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $583.66
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,050
- Potential Total Return: ~80%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
Using the mid case, the TIKR model reaches around $1,050 by December 31, 2030, about 80% above $583.66, or roughly 15% a year. The mid case assumes revenue grows around 11% a year, net income margin reaches about 17%, and the P/E multiple shrinks about 2% a year, so the return rests on earnings growth rather than a richer valuation. Street consensus in TIKR runs slightly higher on revenue, about 12% a year from 2025 to 2030, though only four analysts estimate 2030. Upside would come from advertising regaining double-digit growth. Downside: tougher label renewals would pressure the gross margin path.
Conclusion
Ads are only about 10% of revenue, CFO Christian Luiga said, but they turned fastest: 9% growth at constant currency in the third quarter, after 3% in each of the first two. Luiga said ads should keep moving toward double-digit growth in the fourth quarter, a report that arrived on February 10 last year. A print at 10% or better would support the higher-target camp, while a slide back toward 3% would favor the analysts already below the price, with the label renewals to follow in the first quarter of 2027.
So what is Spotify stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
