Key Stats for SoFi Stock
- Current Price: $16.58
- Target Price (Mid): ~$38
- Street Target: ~$20
- Potential Total Return: ~127%
- Annualized IRR: ~21% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) entered the Federal Reserve’s September meeting with a hike already in its numbers. On September 8, CFO Chris Lapointe told a Goldman Sachs conference that 2026 guidance assumes one to two rate hikes, an assumption management also shared with Q2 results on July 29. The Fed then raised rates by a quarter point on September 16, a move markets widely expected.
Loop Capital’s Hold, issued September 8, cited rate risk and rising capital needs, and capital is the question the hike left open. Shares closed at $16.58 on September 25, down 36.7% from the end of 2025, and SoFi’s investor relations materials carry the capital disclosures that will test both views.
Loop Capital’s Capital Worry Meets an 18.8% Ratio
Loop Capital’s Reginald Smith set a $22 target, flagging interest rate risk and a shift toward more asset-intensive lending that raises capital requirements. StockStory tied a 3.3% intraday drop on September 9 to the note. Morgan Stanley made a similar capital argument in late July, cutting its target to $15 at Underweight.
Lapointe described the balance sheet shift as a choice. SoFi kept $7.6 billion of its $10.7 billion in Q2 personal loan originations on its balance sheet, even though loan platform partners wanted more. “In fact, we didn’t fulfill all of the demand that we have,” he said, citing the recurring interest income those loans lock in.
Lapointe put SoFi’s total risk-based capital ratio at 18.8%, above both the 10.5% regulatory minimum and the low-to-mid-teens level he wants to run at, so some decline is by design. Conference moderator William Nance noted the ratio has already come down. “At this point in time, we don’t see the need to raise any equity capital under our current operating plan,” Lapointe said, a statement about the current plan rather than a pledge.
See historical and forward estimates for SoFi stock (It’s free!) >>>
One More Hike Fits the Guide, and Credit Held in Q2
“What we’re now anticipating and what’s baked into our guidance is that there are 1 to 2 rate hikes,” Lapointe said. On July 29, SoFi raised its revenue guide but kept adjusted net income at about $825 million, and shares fell 8.9% that day.
Sixteen of 18 Fed officials project at least one more hike in 2026, which would still fit SoFi’s range. On September 16, futures put 37% odds on two more, which would not. Lapointe conceded that higher rates pressure student loan and home loan refinancing.
Credit held in Q2: Lapointe cited 90-day delinquencies of 40 basis points, down from Q1, and a 3.7% net charge-off rate.
Analysts rate the stock 5 Buy, 4 Outperform, 12 Hold, 2 Underperform, and 2 Sell, with a mean target of about $20. The forward P/E has fallen to about 23x from about 65x a year earlier. That still sits above every consumer finance peer on TIKR’s list, including Dave (DAVE) near 17x and Ally Financial (ALLY) near 7x.
See how SoFi performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $16.58
- Target Price (Mid): ~$38
- Potential Total Return: ~127%
- Annualized IRR: ~21% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for SoFi stock (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR’s mid-case projects around $38 by December 31, 2030, about 127% above $16.58, or roughly 21% a year. Over its 2025 to 2035 forecast window, the case assumes revenue compounds around 17% a year and net income margins reach about 20%, while the P/E contracts roughly 8% a year.
The revenue drivers are refinancing prime credit card debt and loan platform fees from new small businesses and closed-end second mortgage programs. The margin driver is operating leverage, with Lapointe citing a 29% incremental net income margin over the 12 months through Q2. The primary risk is a third 2026 hike or weaker credit eating into capital.
Management’s own return target is the upside case. Lapointe said a 30% net income margin and roughly a 1:1 ratio of revenue to average tangible equity would deliver a 25% to 30% return on tangible equity, against a 2026 guide that implies an adjusted margin near 17%. If capital tightens first, SoFi could need to slow loan growth or raise equity.
Conclusion
SoFi’s third-quarter report, expected in late October or early November, arrives around the Fed’s October 27 to 28 meeting. A ratio drifting toward the mid-teens is the plan, while an equity raise, or a ratio near the low teens with loans still landing on the balance sheet, would favor Loop Capital.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
Should You Invest in SoFi?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up SoFi, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track SoFi alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
