Key Stats for SoFi Technologies Stock
- Current Price: $15.09
- Target Price (Mid): ~$34
- Street Target: ~$20
- Potential Total Return: ~128%
- Annualized IRR: ~22% / year
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What Happened?
Two analysts looked at SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on Monday, October 12, and came away $10 apart. StoneX’s Mark Palmer started coverage at Buy with a $25 target. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Timothy Switzer kept Underperform and cut his target to $15 from $16, about where the stock closed on October 15, warning of a rate headwind above $1 billion. SoFi reports third-quarter results before the open on October 27, according to its investor relations materials, the first test of either call.
The stock has not picked a side. SoFi closed at $14.22 on October 14, a new 52-week closing low, the same day a hotter-than-expected September CPI report lifted odds of an October Fed hike to about 50%. No company release explained the drop. Shares touched $13.86 intraday on October 15, then closed up 6.12% at $15.09, again with no company news.
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KBW’s $1 Billion-Plus Estimate Targets Capital. SoFi Is Counting on Fees
Switzer’s concern is accounting and capital, not credit. Because SoFi uses fair value accounting, he estimates that higher third-quarter rates on a growing loan book cost more than $1 billion before hedges, an estimate rather than a reported loss. He still expects SoFi to meet consensus and guidance, but at the price of a weaker revenue mix and a thinner capital cushion.
CFO Chris Lapointe had already described the offset at a Goldman Sachs conference on September 8, before either note. SoFi has expanded its loan platform business, which originates loans that partners fund and earns fees without holding them, into small-business loans and closed-end second mortgages. “So you’re going to see an uptick in overall origination volumes in the back half of this year as a result of expanding assets and continued growth in unsecured personal loans,” Lapointe said. Fee streams like these, he argued, let SoFi “use less equity to drive even more revenue.”
If that volume arrives, it eases KBW’s mix concern. Lapointe added his own caveat: the small-business capacity is committed, but SoFi still has to generate borrower demand to fill it, and early take rates may swing.
Cross-Buy Is the Profit Case StoneX Is Betting On
Palmer expects SoFi to turn its top-line growth into profit after a period of heavy marketing spending. Lapointe’s own figures show why that conversion could come cheaply. SoFi added 2.2 million products against 1.1 million members in the second quarter, the first time at that ratio, and 51% of new products came from existing members, who carry no second acquisition cost. Revenue per product, excluding the non-revenue Relay tool, has risen 60% over two years, he said.
Most of Wall Street is less convinced. TIKR shows 6 Buy, 4 Outperform, 11 Hold, 2 Underperform, and 2 Sell ratings, with a mean target of around $20. StoneX’s $25 sits above that mean and below the $30 Street high, while TD Cowen trimmed its target to $17.50 from $18 at Hold in a preview reported October 7.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $15.09
- Target Price (Mid): ~$34
- Potential Total Return: ~128%
- Annualized IRR: ~22% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid-case prices SoFi at around $34 by December 31, 2030, implying around 128% total return from $15.09, or around 22% a year. Its mid-case inputs, shown on the model’s 2025 to 2035 forecast table, assume revenue compounds around 18% a year and net income margins reach around 20%, while the P/E contracts around 9% a year.
For that path to hold, cross-buy has to keep lifting revenue per product while acquisition costs stay flat. The primary risk is KBW’s scenario, with capital consumed faster than fee revenue grows. If platform fees scale as Lapointe describes, StoneX’s $25 could arrive well before 2030; the Street’s lowest target, $12, sits about 20% below the current price.
Conclusion
October 27 has three numbers to watch: revenue against the roughly $1.26 billion consensus, GAAP EPS against around $0.17, and loan platform revenue against the second quarter’s $143.3 million, most of it from $3.1 billion of personal loans originated for partners. Platform revenue rising alongside new small-business and home equity volume would support StoneX. Another quarter of loans piling onto the balance sheet would hand KBW its mix argument.
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So what is SoFi Technologies stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
