Key Stats for Snowflake Stock
- Current Price: $332.43
- Target Price (Mid): ~$879
- Street Target: ~$425
- Potential Total Return: ~165%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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What Happened?
Snowflake (SNOW) had already clawed back its entire 56% drawdown and set a fresh high before it even reported earnings, closing above $305 on September 2. Then the print sent the stock up another 21% in a single day. It trades near $332 now, up about 45% over the past year, and the question has flipped from whether to buy the wreckage to whether the whole move is already gone.
Eight firms raised their targets within two days of the quarter, and one of the market’s most famous bears called the valuation “very overvalued” the same week. Buying here means paying up for a company that already ran twice, on the bet that the acceleration has further to go.
The Quarter That Forced Eight Banks to Rewrite Their Models
Snowflake reported fiscal second-quarter results (period ended July 31, 2026) after the close on September 2. Total revenue climbed 35% to just over $1.5 billion, roughly $65 million past what the Street had penciled in, while adjusted earnings of $0.62 per share cleared the $0.45 consensus by nearly 40%. Product revenue grew 37%, up from 34% the prior quarter and 30% the quarter before that. Three straight quarters of accelerating growth are rare at this size, and the market treated it that way.
Management raised full-year product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion, or 36% growth, from a prior 31%. The reaction off the tape was just as loud. RBC Capital moved its target to $440, Morgan Stanley’s Sanjit Singh went to $470 from $300, and Stifel, TD Cowen, Argus, and Canaccord all landed at $450. RBC Capital said the AI flywheel is accelerating at scale, and read the guidance raise as a signal of further acceleration ahead rather than a one-quarter pop.
CFO Brian Robins, speaking at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference on September 15, tied the beat to something more durable than a single product. He said that when a customer adopts CoCo or AI, Snowflake sees an 11% uplift to the core business they would have run otherwise. That reframes AI as a multiplier on the existing consumption engine, not a separate line item. Management said AI products drove roughly half the acceleration, with the core data platform driving the rest.
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What $332 Already Assumes
Snowflake trades at about 132 times next-twelve-month earnings, 16 times forward EV/revenue, and 86 times forward EV/EBITDA. These are not numbers you grow into quietly. These sit near the top of Snowflake’s own three-year range. There is no clean public comp at its growth-and-margin profile: TIKR’s peer screen pairs it against IBM, which trades at under 4 times forward revenue and 18 times earnings, a gap that says more about how far Snowflake sits from legacy IT than about whether it is cheap. The multiple only works if high-30s product growth holds for years.
Michael Burry called Snowflake “very overvalued” the day after earnings, pointing past the multiple to longer-term risks: that enterprises could pull sensitive data back in-house, and that AI and quantum advances could weaken the security case for centralizing data in a cloud lake. Those are unproven concerns about the future, not the present, but they cut at the thesis rather than the price. The insider signal adds discomfort, with more than $350 million in stock sold over the trailing 90 days.
The retention data is the bull’s strongest card. Existing customers spent 26% more than they did a year ago, the net-retention figure that anchors the durability argument, and the backlog of contracted-but-unrecognized revenue reached $9.0 billion on 30% growth alongside 692 net new customers. Robins made the durability point plainly: the core of the business comes from customers who signed on six, seven, and eight years ago and keep moving more workloads onto the platform. That is the engine that the multiple is really pricing, and it is still running.
The Efficiency Story Underneath the Growth
The less-discussed shift is on cost. Snowflake is committed to GAAP profitability in the fourth quarter of the next fiscal year, and Robins insisted the target required no constraints on spending. The company added roughly 330 people year to date, of which 170 to 180 came from the Observe acquisition, against about 940 in the same period a year earlier.
Free cash flow margins already sit near 24%, and the model assumes they climb toward the high 20s as the company scales. If AI adoption keeps lifting the core the way Robins describes, the margin path and the growth path reinforce each other. If growth slows, the valuation becomes the whole conversation, exactly as Burry argues.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $332.43
- Target Price (Mid): ~$879
- Potential Total Return: ~165%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case scenario models Snowflake at around $879 by early 2031, an implied total return of roughly 165%, and about a 25% annualized IRR over the next four-plus years. The figure is a scenario built on stated assumptions, not a forecast of where the stock will trade.
Two revenue drivers carry it: continued high-30s product growth as AI adoption feeds the consumption model, and deeper penetration of the installed base as older customers migrate more workloads. The margin driver is operating leverage, with net income margins modeled toward the mid-teens as the GAAP-profitability commitment plays out and headcount growth stays well below revenue growth.
The primary risk is the multiple itself. The model assumes almost no change in the P/E over the forecast, so nearly all of the return comes from earnings growth rather than a re-rating. The upside case runs well above the mid-target if growth and margins both reach the high end. The downside is straightforward: at 132 times earnings, any slip toward low-30s growth puts the premium itself in play, which is exactly the tension Burry is pressing.
Conclusion
The next real test is December 2, when Snowflake reports its October quarter. Consensus models a GAAP loss of about $0.37 per share, so the number that matters is product revenue growth. Anything holding in the mid-to-high 30s says the acceleration Robins described is intact, and the chase was justified. A slip toward the low 30s hands Burry his argument, because at 132 times earnings, the stock has no room to disappoint. Watch the growth rate first and the profitability timeline second. Those two lines decide whether buying near the highs was early or late.
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Should You Invest in Snowflake?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Snowflake, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
