Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) has been under pressure this year. The stock trades near $344/share, down about 13% over the past 12 months. Slower volume growth, cost pressures, and uneven demand across housing and industrial categories have weighed on performance, even as the company continues to lean on its scale and brand strength.
Recently, Sherwin-Williams made progress that caught investors’ attention. The company reported improving trends in its pro paint segment, where contractor demand remains a major driver of long term growth. Sherwin-Williams also announced new investments aimed at expanding production capacity and strengthening its industrial coatings footprint. These developments suggest the company is positioning itself for a gradual recovery despite a mixed backdrop.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts believe Sherwin-Williams could trade by 2027. We combined consensus targets and valuation estimates to outline the stock’s potential path. These figures reflect analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Sherwin-Williams trades around $344/share today. The average analyst price target is $386/share, which suggests about 12% upside. That places SHW in the modest upside category, where the stock could outperform if demand improves or if margins strengthen more than expected.
- High estimate: $422/share
- Low estimate: $261/share
- Median target: $392/share
- Ratings: 12 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 11 Holds, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell
The wide spread between bullish and bearish estimates shows that analysts are divided on the strength of the housing and industrial recovery. For investors, this means SHW’s performance over the next two years will depend heavily on execution, volume recovery, and the company’s ability to sustain margins.
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Sherwin-Williams: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals appear steady, but expectations remain moderate based on the latest model inputs:
- Revenue is projected to grow about 3.8% through 2027
- Operating margins are expected to stay near 18.2%
- Shares trade around 28x forward earnings
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 27.9x forward P E suggests about $411/share by 2027
- That implies roughly 20% total return, or about 9% annualized returns
These numbers point to consistent compounding rather than rapid acceleration. Sherwin-Williams continues to deliver strong profitability, but the growth outlook reflects a more measured environment. Upside depends on steady execution and maintaining high returns on capital.
For investors, Sherwin-Williams screens more like a stable long term holding than a fast growing story. Returns look steady, supported by a durable business model and end markets that should gradually normalize over time.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Sherwin-Williams remains one of the strongest franchises in the coatings industry. Its deep contractor relationships, wide distribution footprint, and strong brand presence continue to support pricing power and steady demand.
Management has also leaned into long term investments designed to strengthen the business. Recent efforts to expand production capacity, streamline operations, and grow industrial coatings capabilities position the company well for future demand. For investors, these strengths reinforce the belief that Sherwin-Williams can deliver consistent results through a variety of cycles.
Bear Case: Valuation and Cyclical Headwinds
Even with these strengths, Sherwin-Williams trades at a premium valuation relative to its growth profile. The stock is priced for stability, which leaves little room for disappointment if demand weakens or if costs remain sticky.
Cyclical risks add another layer of uncertainty. Housing turnover remains muted, mortgage rates are elevated, and industrial activity has been inconsistent. If these conditions persist, earnings growth could fall short of expectations. For investors, the key risk is that Sherwin-Williams may need stronger volume recovery to justify its current valuation.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Sherwin-Williams Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 27.9x forward P E suggests Sherwin-Williams could trade near $411/share by 2027. That represents roughly 20% upside, or about 9% annualized returns from today’s levels.
While this is a solid outlook, it already assumes stable margins and moderate earnings improvement. To deliver stronger gains, Sherwin-Williams would likely need better volume trends, a faster recovery in key end markets, or greater efficiency gains throughout the business. Without those factors, investors should expect steady but moderate returns that reflect the company’s quality and slower growth profile.
For investors, Sherwin-Williams appears to be a reliable long term compounder. The path to stronger upside will depend on management’s ability to drive growth beyond the cautious expectations embedded in current forecasts.
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