Key Takeaways for Seagate Technology Stock
- Revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $3.11 billion in Q3 FY2026.
- Operating margins expanded from 15% to 36% over eight consecutive quarters.
- Operating income reached $1.11 billion in Q3 FY2026, up 146% year-over-year.
- TIKR’s mid-case values Seagate Technology stock at approximately $1,876 by June 2030, implying around 122% total return.
Seagate’s Q3 FY2026 Results Show a Business Entering Structural Growth
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $3.11 billion following its April earnings call, up 44% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, as nearline hard disk drive shipments hit 199 exabytes with data center customers accounting for 88% of volume.
The data center segment alone generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 55% year-over-year, as cloud hyperscalers continued committing hundreds of billions in infrastructure CapEx to support AI workloads.
CEO Dave Mosley framed the moment directly on the Q3 2026 earnings call: “Seagate is now entering a period of structural growth.”
That claim rests on three pillars Mosley laid out — the sustainability of rising storage demand, the HAMR technology road map anchored by the Mozaic platform, and a build-to-order model that converts demand into predictable, margin-expanding revenue.
Mozaic 4, the second-generation HAMR platform delivering up to 44 terabytes per drive, began revenue shipments in late March and is already qualified at two of the world’s largest cloud service providers with qualification timelines described as equivalent to conventional PMR products, a signal that customer friction with the new technology has effectively disappeared.
The near-term revenue visibility is unusually high for a hardware company: nearly all nearline capacity is allocated through calendar 2027, with build-to-order contracts defining specific product configurations and pricing through the end of fiscal 2027.
Seagate Technology stock’s guidance for Q4 FY2026 called for revenue of $3.45 billion at the midpoint, a 41% year-over-year improvement, with non-GAAP operating margin expected in the lower 40% range, a continuation of the trajectory the income statement has been tracing for eight consecutive quarters.
The Operating Leverage Inflection That Makes Seagate Technology Stock Worth Watching
Seagate Technology stock’s operating margin has expanded from 15% in the June 2024 quarter to 35.7% by April 2026, an improvement of more than 2,000 basis points in eight quarters, and the income statement shows the mechanism behind it with unusual clarity.
Revenue grew from $1.89 billion to $3.11 billion over that period, a 65% increase, while total operating expenses moved from $320 million to $340 million, a rise of just 6%.
Seagate Technology stock’s gross profit grew at nearly twice the rate of revenue, rising 88% year-over-year to $1.45 billion in the April 2026 quarter, as gross margins expanded from 31.8% in June 2024 to 46.5%, a function of the HAMR platform’s core economics, where adding roughly 10 terabytes of capacity per drive generation requires minimal change to the bill of materials.
The SG&A line has held at $140 million for five consecutive quarters, and R&D has stayed within a tight band of $180 million to $190 million, even as the revenue base has grown by more than $900 million over the same window.
Operating income reached $1.11 billion in the April 2026 quarter, up 146% year-over-year, as the combination of pricing discipline and a structurally flat cost base drove operating margins to 35.7% which is a level Seagate had never sustained before this cycle.
CFO Gianluca Romano confirmed at the Bank of America Global Technology Conference in June that this is not a one-quarter event: “Every quarter, you will see revenue increase and you will see profitability increase”, grounded in build-to-order contracts already in place through fiscal 2027.
How Seagate Technology Stock’s Operating Margins Stack Up Against Micron and Western Digital
Seagate Technology stock posted operating margins of 36% in the April 2026 quarter, trailing Western Digital’s (WDC) 37% by a narrow 134 basis points — a gap that has compressed significantly from June 2024, when Seagate Technology stock ran at 15% against WDC’s 13%.
Micron Technology (MU) leads the peer group at 68%, a level that reflects the memory semiconductor business’s different cost and pricing dynamics rather than a direct competitive disadvantage for Seagate Technology stock, whose nearline HDD market operates with structural demand visibility that DRAM and NAND cycles historically have not.
The more relevant comparison is the trajectory: Seagate Technology stock’s operating margins have expanded by more than 2,000 basis points over eight quarters while WDC has moved roughly 2,364 basis points over the same period, suggesting the two HDD-focused peers are running nearly identical structural improvements — the key question for Seagate Technology stock’s valuation is whether the HAMR platform’s flat bill-of-materials advantage allows it to close and then exceed WDC’s margin as Mozaic 4 ramps through fiscal 2027.
Is Seagate Technology Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $1,876 Target Says Yes
TIKR’s mid-case values Seagate Technology stock at approximately $1,876 by June 2030, implying around 122% total return from the current price of $846, or roughly 22% annualized over 4.1 years.
If Seagate executes on its stated revenue growth target of at least 20% annually through fiscal 2027 and operating margins continue their trajectory toward the lower 40% range, the mid-case scenario produces a stock price approaching approximately $1,876 with an annualized return of around 22%.
If the HAMR transition to Mozaic 5 at 50 terabytes per drive accelerates faster than the late calendar 2027 qualification timeline, and if pricing on new build-to-order contracts continues the sequential improvement pattern of the last 13 quarters, the high-case scenario suggests a stock price of approximately $5,913 with an annualized return of around 27%.
If exabyte demand moderates sooner than expected — driven by a macro slowdown in hyperscaler CapEx or a faster-than-anticipated NAND cost reduction that compresses the cost gap — the low case produces approximately $2,735 with an annualized return of around 16%.
Is Seagate Technology stock a buy right now?
TIKR’s mid-case model targets approximately $1,876 by June 2030, implying around 122% total return from the current $846 price, or roughly 22% annualized.
The income statement supports that case: operating margins reached 35.7% in Q3 FY2026 with total opex flat at $340 million while revenue grew 44% year-over-year.
The key variable to watch is whether operating margins sustain their trajectory toward 40% as Mozaic 4 ramps through fiscal 2027.
Should You Invest in Seagate Technology Holdings plc?
You can build a free watchlist to track Seagate Technology Holdings alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Seagate Technology Holdings stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze STX stock on TIKR for Free →
