Key Takeaways
- Roku (ROKU) reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 2. The Justice Department is still reviewing the offer from Fox Corporation (FOXA), which was worth $160 a share when announced.
- The report is the next look at what Roku is worth on its own if regulators block the sale.
- Free cash flow reached about $710 million over the four quarters to June, and analysts expect normalized EPS to climb from $0.60 in 2025 to $3.97 in 2027.
- On consensus estimates, Roku trades at about 39x next year’s EPS against the 40x implied by Fox’s $160 announced value, and higher estimates explain only part of its gain since sale talks began.
Roku shareholders have an offer from Fox that was worth $160 a share when it was announced in June. What they don’t have yet is approval from the Justice Department.
That makes the third-quarter report, due after the close on Monday, Nov. 2, the next look at what Roku is worth if the deal falls apart.
Washington Sets the Price for Now
Fox agreed to pay $96 in cash plus 0.9693 of a Fox Class A share for each Roku share. Fox stock has slipped since June, so that package is worth less than $160 today. Roku shareholders approved the deal on Oct. 14.
Antitrust is the open question. The DOJ issued a Second Request on Sept. 8, and the waiting period ends only 30 days after both companies substantially comply with it. So there’s no date for a ruling. This week, reports said state attorneys general are also looking at the deal. Both companies still expect to close in the first half of 2027.
Roku stock is up 38% in six months. Each Roku share carries a slice of Fox, so while the offer stands, the stock moves on news from Washington and on Fox’s share price. Fox reports its own quarter Monday morning, hours before Roku. Roku’s quarter, reported with no call and no outlook, may barely move it.
But if the deal is blocked, the quarter is all there is to price.
TIKR Tracks 27 Analysts on Roku. How Many Say “Buy”?
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The Business on Its Own Is Throwing Off Cash
Roku’s quarterly free cash flow grew from $12.8 million in the quarter to December 2023 to $281 million in the quarter to June 2026:
ROKU Free Cash Flow: Quarterly, Sept. 2023-June 2026 (TIKR)
A tariff refund helped the June quarter. Roku says free cash flow would have been $242 million without it. Even so, the last four quarters add up to about $710 million on TIKR’s figures, or $704 million on Roku’s own measure.
Analysts expect earnings to follow. Consensus calls for normalized EPS of $2.99 this year and $3.97 in 2027, up from $0.60 in 2025:
ROKU Normalized EPS: Actual and Consensus Estimates, 2023-2028 (TIKR)
Those estimates have gone up since the deal. At the end of June, analysts expected $2.44 for this year and $3.69 for next. This year’s figure includes the tariff refund, though, and only five analysts publish it.
Fox Is Still Holding Up the Price
At the $160 announced value, Fox’s offer comes to 54x this year’s consensus EPS and 40x next year’s. At Thursday’s $156.33 close, Roku trades at about 52x and 39x on the same estimates.
Those estimates have risen. Next year’s is up about 8% since the end of June, from $3.69 to $3.97. Roku’s stock is up about 31% from $119.64, its close on June 11, the day before sale talks were reported.
Scale that pre-talks price up by the estimate increase and you get roughly $129, right at the top of the $84.00 to $128.89 range the merger proxy’s peer multiples put on Roku. That’s a rough yardstick, not a measured premium: it assumes investors would pay the same multiple as in June, and the earlier estimate dates from the end of June, after the deal. Still, it suggests Fox’s offer is holding up more than $25 of today’s price.
Free cash flow also flatters the picture, because it leaves out stock pay. In 2025, withholding taxes on vested stock plus buybacks took $314.9 million, or 65% of free cash flow.
What Monday Has to Show
For the quarter, analysts expect earnings near $0.53 a share on $1.41 billion of revenue. For a Roku without Fox, three numbers matter most:
- Free cash flow above last year’s third-quarter $126 million, with no tariff refund to help.
- Advertising gross margin above 60%, after 62.4% in the second quarter, since ads carry most of Roku’s profit.
- A diluted share count near the second quarter’s 151.9 million, now that the buyback is suspended.
Higher estimates have lifted what Roku is worth on its own, but probably not by enough to replace Fox’s offer. On that yardstick, a blocked deal points to the high $120s, more than $25 below today’s price, though where the stock actually landed would depend on the multiple investors chose to pay. Monday’s numbers can narrow that gap if free cash flow holds up without the refund, but one quarter won’t close it.
The DOJ still has the last word, and neither company has more than a target for the answer: the first half of 2027.
So What Is Roku Stock Actually Worth if the Deal Doesn’t Go Through?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
