Palantir Trades at 150 Times, Josh Brown Says. Monday’s Guidance Has to Do More Than Beat

Key Takeaways

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reports third-quarter results on Monday, Nov. 2. Going in, Oppenheimer called for another revenue beat and guidance raise, and J.P. Morgan initiated coverage at Overweight with a $262 target.
• Wall Street’s 2026 revenue estimate is already above the top of Palantir’s own guidance, so a beat and a routine raise are expected.
• Since the end of June, Palantir’s forward P/E has climbed from 74x to 103x, while next year’s EPS consensus rose 13%.
• The fourth-quarter guide is the number to watch, because it has to lift 2027 revenue and EPS estimates for the stock to grow into its multiple.

Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 2, and Wall Street has turned more bullish going in.

On Oct. 29, Oppenheimer said Palantir is set for another revenue beat and annual guidance raise. The same day, J.P. Morgan initiated coverage at Overweight with a $262 target for December 2027, about 33% above Wednesday’s close.

Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown came at it from the price. On this week’s episode of the Prof G Markets podcast, he argued that Anthropic looks reasonable next to the free cash flow it could produce. Then he made the comparison:

“Palantir is at 150 times.”

At that price, beating the numbers is the easy part.

Brown didn’t say which earnings he meant. His figure is close to Palantir’s multiple on the past year’s reported earnings. On forward estimates, Palantir trades at 103x, right on its five-year average:

That’s well below the 270x peak of Oct. 31, 2025, but triple the 34x low of May 2022. And it has climbed back fast: it was 74x at the end of June.

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The Raise Is Already in the Numbers

Even the new bull’s case rests on what comes after the quarter. J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Essex wrote: “Palantir is already delivering ROI by leveraging its platform to fundamentally transform the business operations of its customers, and growth is accelerating.”

Palantir beats its own guidance as a habit, and by more each time: $76 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, $97 million in the first quarter and $134 million in the second. It raised its 2026 revenue guide in May and again in August, to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion, or 82% growth.

Consensus already has 2026 revenue at $8.22 billion, above the top of that range:

The same goes for the quarter. Analysts expect $2.18 billion of third-quarter revenue, above the $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion Palantir guided.

Next year’s $12.4 billion estimate is about 50% growth. That’s about $3.1 billion a quarter. Palantir’s current guidance implies roughly $2.4 billion for the fourth quarter.

Next Year’s Earnings Have to Do the Lifting

Analysts expect normalized EPS of $1.61 this year and $2.35 in 2027:

At the end of June, that 2027 figure was $2.08, so August’s beat and raise and the revisions after it added 13%. Over the same stretch, the forward P/E went from 74x to 103x, up about 40%, roughly three times the move in 2027 estimates.

If the price holds, a 13% rise in the next 12 months’ EPS estimates would take the forward multiple from 103x to about 91x. A token raise barely moves it.

What Monday Has to Show

Palantir has rarely traded on estimate math. A hot U.S. commercial number or a big government contract could swing the stock more than any revision. But next year’s estimates are built on those same numbers:

• U.S. commercial revenue: $764 million in the second quarter, up 149%. Monday’s figure laps $397 million from last year’s third quarter, and the full-year guide is at least $3.424 billion (134% growth).
• Total remaining deal value: up 83% to $13.1 billion in the second quarter. That’s slower than revenue’s 93% and down from 105% growth at the end of 2025.
• The fourth-quarter revenue guide: against the roughly $2.4 billion the current outlook implies.

The third-quarter expense line will matter for margins, but revenue guidance is what drives the 2027 estimates.

A beat and another full-year raise are already expected, with consensus revenue above management’s guidance, so a raise that only covers this year does little for a 103x multiple. Palantir needs a fourth-quarter guide well above $2.4 billion, and remaining deal value growing faster again, to push 2027 estimates up by double digits the way August’s report did.

Full 2027 guidance won’t come until the fourth-quarter report in early February, so Monday can only start that work.

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