Key Takeaways
- Riot Platforms fell 6% today as the AI data center selloff ran into a second day.
- Today’s drop looks overdone, since Riot had no bad news and three firms raised their price targets this morning.
- On management’s figures, Riot’s leases would bring in about $2.2 billion of net operating income a year once fully built.
- MARA Holdings, which hasn’t signed an AI lease, fell with Riot ahead of its Nov. 9 report.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) sank 6% today, giving back most of Wednesday’s jump on its $28 billion Corsicana lease.
The AI selloff that began after Democrats’ midterm wins hit chipmakers, data center builders and bitcoin miners for a second day. MARA Holdings (MARA) fell 14%.
A lot of signed rent for the money
Corsicana’s 910 MW plus Rockdale’s 241 MW gives Riot 1,151 MW under contract, about $38 billion of contracted revenue, and about $2.2 billion of yearly net operating income once fully built, on management’s figures. The whole company is worth under $6 billion.
Lucid Capital, Bernstein and Northland all raised their targets this morning, Northland calling the lease “transformational.”
Going in, analysts expected Riot’s revenue to nearly double from 2025 to $1.24 billion in 2028:
Riot now expects its signed leases alone to bring in $2.3 billion in 2029, so those later years should move up.
Yet its forward price/sales multiple, 6.3x on Nov. 2 and only somewhat higher at today’s price, sits near its five-year average and far below June’s 16x, before Corsicana was signed:
No one got a pass
Bloom Energy (BE) fell 18% even after NTT DATA announced a 900 MW fuel cell agreement with Bloom this morning.
MARA is making the same move from mining into AI leasing, with no tenant yet, and its bitcoin holdings fell 29% in the year to June 30, to 35,577 coins. Its second-quarter shareholder letter said it expects to sign at least one lease before year-end. Will its Nov. 9 report name one? Until it does, MARA deserves a steeper discount than Riot.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Riot Platforms. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Riot Platforms, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Riot Platforms’ Analyst Ratings
One tenant, one bridge loan
The risk is concentration: one lab, which Bloomberg reported is Anthropic, carries nearly all of Riot’s contracted revenue. Neither company has confirmed it.
Investors sold a theme today and dumped Riot’s signed rent along with it. At this multiple, the stock looks cheap.
Of course, Riot’s $573 million bridge loan for Rockdale comes due Dec. 31. If Riot has to extend it at a higher rate or sell stock to cover it, I’d rethink that.
So what is Riot Platforms stock actually worth?
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