Key Takeaways
- Nebius Group (NBIS) stock has gained 69% in 2026 but fallen 53% from its June peak as investors question AI infrastructure financing.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) had approximately $29.5 billion in net borrowings at June 30, compared with $504 million at Nebius, excluding leases.
- Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) have signed multibillion-dollar infrastructure agreements supporting Nebius’s expansion.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) holds a reported 9.3% stake in Nebius and supplies GPUs central to its AI infrastructure growth.
What Happened?
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock has gained approximately 69% in 2026, closing at $141.39 on November 2, despite falling 53% from its June 22 intraday high of $299.86.
The selloff intensified in October as concerns about CoreWeave’s borrowing obligations spread across AI infrastructure stocks, raising questions about whether Nebius can finance expansion without excessive debt or shareholder dilution.
At June 30, Nebius had substantially lower net borrowings than CoreWeave, although subsequent financing and its planned infrastructure expansion are increasing its financial obligations.
Meanwhile, major customer contracts continue supporting growth.
Microsoft’s infrastructure agreement is valued at $17.4 billion, potentially reaching $19.4 billion, while Meta’s five-year agreement includes $12 billion in dedicated capacity and up to $15 billion in additional commitments.
In its August 12 earnings announcement, Nebius reported 454% revenue growth to $582 million, a 41% adjusted EBITDA margin, and four AI cloud agreements averaging more than $1 billion each.
TIKR’s October 21 consensus estimates project revenue rising from $530 million in 2025 to $3.35 billion in 2026 and $12.24 billion in 2027, representing more than sixfold growth followed by another threefold expansion.
However, financing concerns remain significant.
On October 21, Piper Sandler lowered its Nebius price target from $237 to $185. The following day, Nebius secured a $3.5 billion financing facility from Citi to support infrastructure expansion.
Nebius COO Ophir Nave explained:
“Sequencing our financing is how we optimize our long-term cost of capital.”
Analysts project $29.1 billion in capital spending and roughly $34 billion in net debt by the end of 2027. Despite more than $9 billion in expected 2026 customer prepayments, additional financing could increase borrowing costs and shareholder dilution.
Is Nebius Stock Undervalued or Overvalued?
Nebius appears potentially undervalued relative to its historical sales multiples, although substantial financing requirements create significant investment risks.
According to TIKR, Nebius traded at 5.9x forward sales on October 30, compared with approximately 13x at the end of June and a peak near 32x in October 2025.
The lower multiple contrasts with relatively stable long-term revenue estimates, which had declined less than 2% since September 30.
However, second-quarter depreciation of nearly $260 million exceeded adjusted EBITDA of approximately $236 million, highlighting the challenge of converting rapid growth into sustainable profitability.
Nebius will report third-quarter results on November 12, with analysts expecting approximately $906 million in revenue. Customer prepayments, deferred revenue, and capital spending will be important metrics to monitor.
For investors, the falling valuation does not necessarily mean Nebius’s AI business is collapsing. Whether the stock is genuinely undervalued depends on its ability to fund growth without excessive debt or dilution.
So what is Nebius stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Nebius could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
