Key Stats for Riot Platforms Stock
- Current Price: $18.54
- Target Price (Mid): ~$54
- Street Target: ~$32
- Potential Total Return: ~194%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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What Happened?
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) closed at $18.54 on October 7. That is up 46% from its $12.67 close on December 31, 2025, but 39% below the $30.32 intraday high it touched on June 22. Shares also fell 8% between the September 30 and October 7 closes.
No single catalyst has been confirmed. GuruFocus reported a 14% weekly drop to October 3 that came alongside sector weakness, with Bitcoin steady. Simply Wall St tied a 10.6% decline to Riot’s early repayment of a Coinbase loan. The bigger question sits in the financing plan behind Riot’s second-quarter results.
A Bridge Loan That Ends a Year Before Targeted Rent
A Riot subsidiary has an up-to-$573 million delayed-draw facility from Morgan Stanley (MS). It funds long-lead equipment for the 191-megawatt AI lab build at Rockdale. Under the August 10 Form 8-K, loans mature on December 31, 2026, subject to the agreement’s terms. Riot is targeting rent on the first 96 megawatts in December 2027.
CFO Jason Chung said Riot plans to “execute the takeout financing of this interim facility in the coming months as the investment-grade backstop is completed.” He also cited “contractual protections we put in place to make sure that regardless of the outcome, we will be protected and we have secured investment-grade or investment-grade equivalent economics.”
Riot has not described those protections publicly. On the August 10 call, Chung declined to name the backstop parties or terms.
Spending is accelerating meanwhile. Chung said capex should ramp through the back half of 2026, with combined AI lab and AMD project capex “probably” peaking between the second and third quarters of 2027. TIKR consensus puts 2027 capex near $2.4 billion and free cash flow at around negative $1.8 billion.
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Riot Expected the AMD Loan by September 30
Chung said financing against the first 25 megawatts leased to AMD (AMD), a term loan of about $180 million, had reached “late-stage discussions with multiple banks, and we expect to close before the end of the third quarter.”
The quarter ended September 30. No closing announcement had surfaced in Riot’s press releases or news coverage through October 8. That does not mean the loan failed, and it may appear in third-quarter filings. Assuming 80% to 90% project debt on the AI lab, those proceeds cut Riot’s own equity share to $30 million to $280 million.
Riot did retire other debt. It fully prepaid its $200 million Coinbase Credit facility on September 21. At June 30, 5,821 of its 11,380 Bitcoin had been pledged against that loan. The filing confirms the liens were released, but does not state the payoff balance or what funded it.
Delivery continues meanwhile. AMD’s next 10 megawatts are expected in November, with the remaining 15 megawatts in May 2027.
Riot’s power position adds to the case for owning the shares. CEO Jason Les said Rockdale and Corsicana “are not subject to the batch process,” the ERCOT process he described as handling an unprecedented volume of data center interconnection requests. That is because their power already sits under existing interconnection agreements.
Analysts lean bullish, with 14 Buys, 7 Outperforms, and 1 Hold. B. Riley raised its target to $33 from $28 on September 29, slightly above the ~$32 Street mean.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $18.54
- Target Price (Mid): ~$54
- Potential Total Return: ~194%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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The mid case is used because it is the only scenario that the model card prices at the 2030 horizon.
- Revenue Driver 1: AMD’s 50 megawatts are fully delivered by May 2027, and the AI lab’s 191 megawatts by June 2028.
- Revenue Driver 2: Consensus revenue rises from $647.44 million in 2025 to around $1.2 billion in 2028.
- Margin Driver: Consensus EBITDA margin climbs from 2.0% in 2025 to around 33% in 2028.
- Primary Risk: The bridge takeout is not done by December 31, 2026.
- Upside: Rockdale has 700 megawatts of capacity with 241 contracted, leaving room for more leases.
- Downside: A slipped takeout would push Riot toward an extension, more Bitcoin sales, or common equity, which it did not issue in the second quarter.
Conclusion
The model makes the case for loading up. The financing calendar says that the case is not yet proven. Two filings would settle it: a closed AMD term loan near $180 million, and a takeout of the Morgan Stanley bridge before December 31.
Riot has not scheduled its third-quarter report, and third-party calendars range from October 30 to November 10. If that report shows neither, the bridge’s year-end maturity becomes the stock’s next test.
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So what is Riot Platforms stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
