Key Takeaways
- Rigetti Computing fell 5% after third-quarter revenue of $1.4 million missed the $3.52 million consensus by nearly 60%.
- Rigetti’s 2026 outlook of about $20 million trails the $22.9 million consensus and rests on one customer accepting a system in the fourth quarter.
- IonQ’s record results drove last week’s rally, but Rigetti’s and D-Wave Quantum’s sales are a fraction of IonQ’s.
- Rigetti has the cash to wait, and the thing to watch is whether C-DAC accepts its system by year-end.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) fell 5% today after third-quarter revenue came in at $1.4 million. That’s nearly 60% below the $3.52 million analysts expected.
Rigetti jumped 19% on Nov. 6 after IonQ (IONQ) raised its 2026 guidance to an industry record. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), which also reported after Tuesday’s close, is holding up better.
The fourth quarter is mostly one system
Rigetti’s sales come in lumps, because a system counts as revenue only once the customer accepts it. Revenue fell from $5.1 million in the second quarter, though nine-month sales still more than doubled to $10.9 million.
Management guided 2026 revenue to about $20 million, assuming India’s C-DAC accepts its system in the fourth quarter. That leaves about $9 million for the quarter, and C-DAC’s $8.4 million order is most of it. Mizuho cut its target to $17 from $22, citing the “soft” guidance.
Analysts expect revenue to more than double again in 2027, to $43.5 million:
IonQ is in a different league
IonQ booked $173.8 million of third-quarter revenue, and its 2026 guidance of $505 million to $515 million is more than 25x Rigetti’s. IonQ is off 2% today, and its record quarter says little about how its smaller rivals are selling.
D-Wave’s quarter looked more like Rigetti’s, with $4.5 million of revenue. But D-Wave ended September with $38.3 million of remaining performance obligations, about 59% of it due within a year. D-Wave is up 3%, and I suspect that order book is why.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Rigetti Computing. How many say “Buy”?
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Plenty of cash, and a steep multiple
Rigetti can afford to wait. It ended September with $497.1 million of cash and investments and no debt. But capital spending was $42.6 million in the first nine months, about triple a year earlier.
Rigetti’s forward price-to-sales multiple has fallen a long way:
At the last close it was 112x. That’s about half its three-year average of 226x, but still far above the 7.9x of August 2024.
I’d wait for C-DAC to sign off before paying more than 100x sales for a company that swings on one customer. If it does, the fourth-quarter report early next year will show whether doubling revenue in 2027 looks reachable.
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