Key Takeaways
- Rigetti’s third-quarter revenue fell to $1.4 million, far short of analysts’ estimates, and its CEO said no quantum company can yet show a return over classical computing.
- Kulkarni’s ROI caution is a fair warning for the field, but saying revenue isn’t the right yardstick yet is easier for a company that has very little of it.
- IonQ’s platform business made more in one quarter than analysts expect Rigetti to make in all of 2028.
- At 112x forward sales, Rigetti is priced on a roadmap that just got longer, and India’s acceptance of its 108-qubit system in the fourth quarter is the next test.
Quantum stocks rallied hard after IonQ (IONQ) raised its 2026 revenue guidance on Nov. 5. Then Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) reported on Nov. 10.
On Rigetti’s third-quarter call, StoneX analyst Gary Mobley asked CEO Subodh Kulkarni about the sales pipeline. Kulkarni said data center managers need to see a return before they really invest, and that “none of us are at a point where we can demonstrate ROI with quantum computing over classical computing.”
It’s unusual for a quantum CEO to be that honest. He said it in a quarter when Rigetti’s own sales went backward.
Rigetti Hit Its Fidelity Target and Missed on Sales
Rigetti’s third-quarter revenue was $1.4 million, down from $1.94 million a year earlier and well short of the $3.68 million analysts expected. The company now expects about $20 million of revenue for 2026, but only if India’s C-DAC accepts its 108-qubit system in the fourth quarter.
Kulkarni says sales aren’t the number to watch yet: “we don’t think it’s the right metric to follow until we reach quantum advantage, and we think that’s roughly 3 years from now.” And Rigetti did hit its technical target. Its third-quarter release says the 108-qubit system reached 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity, a goal it first set for the end of 2025.
Analysts expect revenue to climb, but from a small base:
That gets Rigetti to $71.3 million by 2028. With Kulkarni putting quantum advantage about three years out, I don’t see a reason for analysts to raise that number.
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Investors Are Paying for Rigetti’s Roadmap
Kulkarni’s caution goes beyond Rigetti. Asked about software and error correction, he said, “Today, hardware is limiting for almost all the quantum computing technology players.” So these stocks trade on technical progress, and Rigetti’s forward price-to-sales multiple shows how much investors are paying for it:
At 112x, Rigetti trades at about half its three-year average of 226x and far below its 1,415x peak in October 2025, but miles above the 7.9x it hit in August 2024. Rigetti is funding the wait from $497.1 million of cash and investments, down from $541.3 million at the end of June.
And the wait just got longer. A year ago, Rigetti expected a 150-plus-qubit system at 99.7% fidelity by about the end of 2026. Its new goal is a 300-plus-qubit system at about 99.7% by mid-2028.
Customers Are Already Paying IonQ
Still, revenue shows which companies customers are paying today, and IonQ is far ahead. Its third-quarter revenue was $173.8 million, up 336% from a year earlier. $90.3 million came from the IonQ Platform segment, which sells quantum computers, networking, sensing and security, and the rest came from SkyWater, the foundry it bought.
Analysts expect much more to come:
Rigetti’s 2028 estimate is smaller than IonQ’s platform revenue in a single quarter.
D-Wave is growing from a small base too: its third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $4.5 million. None of this proves quantum beats classical on cost. Kulkarni himself pointed out that companies doing quantum research buy time on these machines too.
Right About the Field, Too Easy on Rigetti
Kulkarni’s point that no one can yet show a return over classical machines is a fair warning for anyone buying these stocks, though D-Wave says its customers already run applications in production. His three-year timeline to quantum advantage is Rigetti’s own. But it’s a lot easier to wave off revenue when you brought in $1.4 million in a quarter. IonQ’s platform business, which also sells networking, sensing and security, is already turning this market into real money.
Frankly, the 99.5% milestone is the best news Rigetti has had in a while. At 112x forward sales, though, with the next target pushed to mid-2028, I’d want to see that progress turn into orders before paying up. The first test is C-DAC’s acceptance in the fourth quarter, which the $20 million outlook depends on.
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