Key Takeaways
- Rigetti shares jumped 19.3% on Friday as IonQ’s 336% revenue growth and raised guidance lifted the quantum group.
- Consensus expects third-quarter revenue of $3.68 million, below the $5.1 million Rigetti reported in the second quarter.
- At 122x forward sales, Rigetti trades at more than seven times IonQ’s multiple, with about $386 million of net cash.
- Tuesday’s report will show whether Novera system sales can make revenue less lumpy before the March fiscal-year report.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock rose 19.3% on Friday to $12. The company had no news of its own.
The spark came from IonQ (IONQ), which reported 336% revenue growth on Thursday and jumped 23.4%. Quantum stocks moved together, as they usually do.
Rigetti gets its own turn on Tuesday, and the setup is less flattering. Analysts expect revenue to shrink from last quarter.
(The stock is also still 66% below its 52-week high, so Friday mostly clawed back recent losses.)
Tuesday’s bar is a low one
Here’s what the Street is looking for:
- Revenue of $3.68 million, up 89% from $1.95 million a year ago
- An EPS loss of $0.06
- A drop of about 28% from second-quarter revenue of $5.1 million
The second quarter was boosted by on-premises Novera system sales, and those deals land in lumps. That’s why the forecast drops.
Rigetti’s beat record is mixed. It missed in the fourth quarter of 2025, beat in the first quarter, and came in just under estimates in the second.
Just how bumpy has the line been?
Quarterly revenue has never cleared $6 million, which makes every system sale a swing factor.
Funding arrives before revenue
Washington is a big part of Rigetti’s story. In September it signed a $100 million R&D award with the Commerce Department under the CHIPS Act.
That money supports development, but it won’t turn into product revenue soon. Meanwhile, Rigetti expanded its work with HPE and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center on a hybrid quantum-classical system.
Leadership also shifted in August. Former CTO David Rivas became COO, and Andrew Bestwick took over as CTO.
Compare the price tags…
IonQ trades at 16.5x forward sales after its blowout quarter. Rigetti sits at 122x, so the market is paying far more per dollar of revenue for a much smaller business.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Rigetti Computing. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rigetti Computing, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rigetti Computing’s Analyst Ratings
Cash buys time, not traction
Rigetti does have runway. It held about $386 million more cash than debt at the latest count, against a market value near $3.9 billion.
The burn is steep, though. Its trailing operating margin is negative 728%, and gross margin is only 34.6%.
Insiders haven’t been buyers either. CEO Subodh Kulkarni sold 120,000 shares worth $1.88 million in September, and CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen sold $375,010 of stock days earlier.
That cash burn is the clock investors should watch.
My take: Rigetti gained 19% on someone else’s quarter. The average Street target near $28 implies 136% upside, but that only works if revenue starts compounding, and right now it’s moving sideways. I’d treat Friday’s pop as a trade on sentiment.
Tuesday’s report is the first test. Watch whether management ties the CHIPS award and Novera pipeline to a revenue path, then check again at the March 4 fiscal-year report.
So what is Rigetti Computing stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
