Key Stats for PepsiCo Stock
- Current Price: $138.83
- Target Price (Mid): ~$193
- Street Target: ~$142
- Potential Total Return: ~39%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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What Happened?
PepsiCo (PEP) renewed its U.S. beverage partnership with Taco Bell for 11 years on October 22, keeping the chain through 2036. The deal came one week after sister chain KFC said it would switch to Coca-Cola (KO). Shares closed up 3.07% at $138.83, then gave back part of that gain in October 23 trading.
Taco Bell is settled, but PepsiCo’s North American supply chain is not. The company promised investors a review update in late 2026, and on October 8 its CEO would not rule anything out.
Taco Bell Matters More Than KFC Did
The renewal keeps Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Starry and the exclusive Baja Blast and Baja Midnight flavors in U.S. Taco Bell restaurants. It also covers Canada, the U.K., Ireland and Thailand, according to PepsiCo’s announcement. Terms were not disclosed.
Both chains belong to Yum! Brands (YUM). CNN reported that Taco Bell generated about $17 billion of U.S. system-wide sales in 2025, against roughly $5 billion for KFC.
The KFC loss is small by comparison. Bank of America analysts estimated it at about $500 million of annual sales, Reuters reported. That is roughly 0.5% of PepsiCo’s $98.24 billion in trailing revenue.
Coverage tied the October 22 gain to the renewal, but consumer staples rose more than 3% that day as investors left technology. The Nasdaq fell 2.60%, and Coca-Cola also climbed. PepsiCo moved roughly in line with its sector.
Laguarta Kept Every Option Open but Gave No Timeline
Elliott Investment Management disclosed a $4 billion stake in 2025 and pushed PepsiCo to refranchise its U.S. bottling. In December 2025, the company said it would update investors on its North American supply chain review in late 2026.
On the October 8 call, BNP Paribas analyst Kevin Grundy asked about splitting the company or refranchising bottlers. Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta answered, “we’re open to revisiting every option.”
Responding to Evercore ISI’s Robert Ottenstein, he described “the hybrid approach, the nuanced approach by geographies”: combined snack and beverage delivery in some regions, partners in others. Asked by JPMorgan’s Andrea Teixeira about timing, he said, “we’ll get to that when the moment comes.”
Consolidation is already under way. PepsiCo announced on October 19 that it was closing its Knoxville, Tennessee bottling plant, affecting 112 workers.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on PepsiCo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on PepsiCo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See PepsiCo’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $138.83
- Target Price (Mid): ~$193
- Potential Total Return: ~39%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
The mid case, the model’s central scenario, points to around $193 by December 31, 2030. That is a ~39% total return, or ~8% a year. It sits well above the $141.59 Street mean, and 17 of 24 analysts rate the stock Hold.
The model’s mid-case inputs assume revenue growth around 3% a year and a net income margin near 12%. For growth, management points to international, where organic revenue rose 8% in Q3, and to hydration and energy drinks. A leaner U.S. beverage network would support the margin input.
The risk is delay. PepsiCo already cut its 2026 core EPS growth outlook to 2.5% to 3.5%, and an open-ended review leaves the stock without a margin catalyst.
Conclusion
The late-2026 update is the test. Specific U.S. regions handed to partners, with a margin goal attached, would back the model’s path toward $193. Another “we’re looking at everything” would push the answer into 2027 and keep the stock near the Street mean.
So what is PepsiCo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
