Key Stats for Palantir Stock
- Current Price: $196.19
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,400
- Street Target: ~$207
- Potential Total Return: ~614%
- Annualized IRR: ~60% / year
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What Happened?
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) told Reuters on October 21 that no one can switch off the AI system used by NATO’s military headquarters, Palantir included. “There are no kill switches,” said Louis Mosley, executive vice president for the UK and Europe, adding that whether Palantir staff help operate the Maven Smart System is up to the customer. Shares fell 2.74% to $196.19 on October 22, the day the report ran, as chip and AI infrastructure stocks also sold off. No outlet confirmed a Palantir-specific cause for the drop.
The pledge is the company’s assurance, not an independent technical review. It also speaks to the sharpest critique of how Palantir sells: that customers end up dependent on its engineers.
Gartner Says Engineer-Built AI Gets Abandoned. Palantir’s Costs Disagree, So Far
Palantir pairs its software with forward-deployed engineers, staff embedded at customer sites. On September 29, Gartner predicted that 70% of enterprises will abandon agentic AI built by vendor forward-deployed engineering by 2028, as costs climb and customers struggle to change the systems themselves. Gartner did not name Palantir.
The second quarter points the other way. CFO Dave Glazer reported adjusted expense, which excludes stock-based compensation, of $741 million, up 37% year over year, while revenue grew 93%. If every new deployment needed proportionally more engineers, costs would grow in step with revenue, not at less than half its pace.
Palantir’s October 21 customer update offered one example. McCarthy Building Companies, which runs Palantir’s Foundry and AIP, delivered better-than-frontier performance at significantly lower cost with a post-trained open-weight model, saving 30,000 hours a year, according to the release.
Europe Is Where the Control Question Bites
Germany and France have not adopted Maven for their own armed forces, citing concerns about relying on a U.S. company, according to Reuters, and Starlink disruptions in Ukraine have sharpened that worry. The growth gap predates the scare. In 2025, U.S. revenue grew 74.7% to $3.32 billion, UK revenue grew 40.3% to $427 million, and rest-of-world revenue grew 10.2% to $728 million. In Q2, international commercial revenue rose just 2% from Q1 (26% year over year), to $182 million.
CEO Alex Karp acknowledged the strain on the call, saying Palantir sometimes acts against its own economic interest, “like we’re supporting lots of institutions in Europe, the growth sucks.” He clarified that he meant “clandestine institutions.” TIKR covered the U.S.-versus-Europe sovereignty split in September; the kill-switch pledge is the newer development.
TIKR tracks 32 analysts on Palantir. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Palantir, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Palantir’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $196.19
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,400
- Potential Total Return: ~614%
- Annualized IRR: ~60% / year
The mid case is used as the central scenario, with returns measured from $196.19. The model card’s 2025 to 2035 forecast table assumes around 57% annual revenue growth and a net income margin near 49%, with the P/E multiple shrinking about 7% a year from 103x forward earnings on October 22. Even the low case assumes 51% annual growth, so the main risk is a slowdown below every scenario shown. Upside comes from more pilots converting into multiyear contracts without a matching rise in engineering costs. The Street’s mean target of around $207 sits about 5% above the stock, Citi’s $250 Buy target sits about 21% above that mean, and the lowest Street target is $80.
Conclusion
Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close on November 2. Glazer said that, as in prior years, Palantir expects “a significant ramp in expense in the third quarter,” and guidance midpoints imply adjusted expense near $868 million, up about 17% from Q2. A year earlier, Q3 expense rose about 8% from Q2. Palantir topped its revenue guidance in each of the last five quarters, so the test is whether actual revenue growth outpaces the expense ramp; if expenses rise faster, Gartner’s argument gets its first real data point.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
