Key Takeaways
- Palantir stock is down 15% over the past year, even though third-quarter revenue rose 96% and its 2026 revenue guidance climbed from 61% growth in February to 91%.
- The business kept beating, and the drop came from investors paying less for it: the forward P/E fell from 270x in October 2025 to 94x on Nov. 2, below its five-year average.
- Contract bookings grew just 6% in the third quarter, and ServiceNow’s stock was hit even harder for a similar slowdown.
- At this price, Palantir looks like a buy for patient investors, as long as its February report shows the bookings slowdown came from shorter contracts.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has grown faster in each of its last four reports, and its stock is down 15% over the past year anyway. Most of that drop came in the last three sessions. Shares fell 6.27% in an Oct. 30 tech sell-off and 3.13% on Monday before the third-quarter report, then lost another 1.65% on Tuesday despite 96% revenue growth.
On Prof G Markets the morning of the report, co-host Scott Galloway set the bar: “Anything short of a blowout is a sell on this thing at this price.”
Revenue cleared that bar easily. The total value of the contracts Palantir signed grew just 6%, though, the same kind of slowdown that sank ServiceNow (NOW) the week before.
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Four reports, four raises
Palantir’s growth sped up in every report over the past year, and each time it raised its 2026 revenue guidance:
- Fourth quarter of 2025 (Feb. 2): revenue up 70%, with a first 2026 guide of 61%
- First quarter (May 4): up 85%, guide raised to 71%
- Second quarter (Aug. 3): up 93%, guide raised to 82%
- Third quarter (Nov. 2): up 96% to $2.313 billion, guide raised to 91%, or about $8.53 billion
The third quarter was its first above $2 billion. U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% to $984 million and passed U.S. government revenue for the first time.
Analysts’ 2027 EPS estimate nearly doubled along with it, from $1.19 at the end of September 2025 to $2.35. Going into the report, they expected normalized EPS to more than quadruple from 2025 to 2028:
The new 2026 guide sits well above the $8.22 billion analysts expected, so those estimates have room to climb again.
Investors paid less for every dollar
Investors paid a lot less for all that growth. At the end of October 2025, Palantir traded at 270x forward earnings, its highest in five years. By Monday’s close it was down to 94x, below its five-year average of 102x:
Tuesday’s drop took it lower still.
The one number short of a blowout
Palantir booked $2.918 billion of total contract value in the third quarter. That was up 6% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the second quarter’s 49% gain. U.S. commercial contract value rose 11%, and U.S. commercial remaining deal value grew just 4% from June, to $6.517 billion.
On Palantir’s third-quarter call, CEO Alex Karp described the commercial business as “much quicker interaction, much quicker to deployment, shorter duration of the contract, but then an ability to expand that contract dramatically.” Shorter deals book less value up front even as customers spend more. Over a full year, U.S. commercial remaining deal value has still grown 79%.
ServiceNow has been punished harder for a similar problem. It guided fourth-quarter growth in current remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue due over the next 12 months) down to 18.5%. CFO Gina Mastantuono put that partly down to early renewals pulled into the third quarter and more on-premises deals. Its stock is down 40% over the past year, leaving it at 23x forward earnings on Nov. 2, less than half its five-year average of 53x. Palantir, at 94x, still needs growth near today’s pace to last for years.
A price Palantir can grow into
Palantir guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion. That report, due in early February, should also bring its first 2027 guidance. Wall Street’s average target of $217 is about 24% above Tuesday’s $175.40 close.
At 94x, Palantir isn’t cheap. But it now trades below its own five-year average while its growth keeps speeding up, and that makes it a buy for investors who can sit through the swings.
If U.S. commercial remaining deal value barely grows again in February, though, Galloway will be hard to argue with: at this price, anything short of a blowout is a sell.
So what is Palantir stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
