Key Takeaways
- Rigetti Computing fell 11% in a week as a tech selloff and price-target cuts hit quantum stocks, and D-Wave Quantum fell even more.
- Neither company announced anything that explains the drop.
- Both report on Nov. 10, and much of Rigetti’s expected revenue this year depends on a system delivery in India.
- Rigetti has years of cash, but Nov. 10 is the event to wait for.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) fell 11% in the week through its Nov. 3 close. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) fell even harder, dropping 15%.
Neither company announced anything that explains the drop. Tech stocks sold off broadly: the Nasdaq 100 closed Nov. 2 more than 10% below its Oct. 6 record, which is correction territory. Quantum stocks went down with it, only faster.
Friday did the most damage
The biggest hit came on Friday, Oct. 30. The Nasdaq sold off after Intel’s weak fourth-quarter outlook, and Amazon’s results added to worries about AI spending.
B. Riley trimmed its targets and kept its Buy
Then, before the open on Monday, Nov. 2, B. Riley’s Craig Ellis cut his Rigetti target to $25 from $35 and kept his Buy rating, citing weakness across quantum and AI stocks. He cut his D-Wave target to $27 from $40 the same day.
D-Wave has to show its spending is paying off
D-Wave fell 15% on the same selloff and target cuts. Its second-quarter revenue was roughly flat from a year earlier at $3.1 million, and its operating loss doubled to $53.3 million, according to its quarterly report.
It reports before the open on Nov. 10, and Rigetti reports after the close that day. The question for D-Wave: is all that spending showing up in sales yet?
What Rigetti’s Nov. 10 report has to show
Analysts expect Rigetti’s revenue to more than triple this year, to $23.3 million from $7.1 million in 2025:
A lot of that depends on the fourth quarter. Rigetti’s $8.4 million system for India’s C-DAC counts as revenue only once it’s installed and accepted, and it makes up more than a third of this year’s estimate.
Rigetti can afford to wait. It held $541.3 million in cash and investments, including long-term investments, at June 30, with no borrowings. Its free cash outflow over the 12 months to June was $87.6 million.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Rigetti Computing. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rigetti Computing, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rigetti Computing’s Analyst Ratings
I’d wait for Nov. 10
Analysts’ average target has come down from $40.50 last November but is still far above the stock:
At $28, it’s about 2.5x the Nov. 3 close.
Selling into a selloff that hit the whole sector makes little sense when Rigetti’s cash covers years of losses. Loading up before Nov. 10 is hard to justify too, because that report is the first check on whether the C-DAC system lands in the fourth quarter as planned.
If C-DAC’s acceptance slips into 2027, this year’s revenue estimates would likely come down with it.
So what is Rigetti stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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