Key Takeaways
- Redwire stock is down 25% in the past month with no bad news of its own, as space stocks and high-flying tech sold off together.
- The company kept winning work through the drop, including a follow-on solar-array order from Axiom Space and more Stalker drone orders for the National Guard.
- Redwire still loses money, and its diluted share count nearly doubled in 2025, so dilution is the main risk.
- I’d hold the stock through its Nov. 4 third-quarter report and wait for narrower losses before buying more.
Redwire (RDW) stock is down 25% in the past month, and nothing in the company’s own news explains it.
Space stocks sold off with high-flying tech. The Nasdaq-100 fell 9% over the same stretch, while Rocket Lab dropped 26% and AST SpaceMobile 36%.
The whole group sold off
Redwire’s worst day came on Friday, Oct. 30, with no company news at all. The Nasdaq-100 lost 3% that day, and Redwire fell 8% as Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines and Firefly dropped 8% to 11%.
Wall Street didn’t offer much support, either. Piper Sandler initiated coverage on Oct. 15 with a Neutral rating and an $11 price target, and kept both on Oct. 23.
The orders kept coming
Meanwhile, Redwire kept landing work all month:
- Oct. 5: a follow-on contract from Axiom Space for two Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) wings for Axiom Station’s second module
- Oct. 12: the fourth and final pair of its ROSA wings for the International Space Station headed to the station, completing its power upgrade
- Oct. 15: more orders for its Stalker drones from the U.S. National Guard
- Oct. 21: an agreement with EnduroSat to explore working together on European space infrastructure
Plus: just before the month began, on Sept. 24, Space Systems Command picked Redwire as one of 15 vendors on its $980 million NITE-STAR contract.
Those orders add to a record backlog of $542.1 million at June 30, up from $411.2 million at the end of 2025. Second-quarter revenue jumped 89.6% from a year earlier to $117.1 million, and the net loss narrowed to $41.0 million from $97.0 million.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Redwire. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Redwire, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Redwire’s Analyst Ratings
Nov. 4 has to back up the estimates
Redwire reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4, and analysts expect a big year. The consensus calls for revenue of $475 million in 2026, up 42% from $335 million in 2025, and $564 million in 2027:
That 2026 estimate sits right at the midpoint of the $450 million-$500 million range management stood by in August, and nothing in October’s news gives me a reason to expect cuts.
I’ll be watching three things: the backlog after October’s orders, whether the gross margin holds near the second quarter’s 27.8%, and whether adjusted EBITDA, negative $3.2 million last quarter, finally turns positive.
Off its highs, still above its average
The drop leaves Redwire at 3.8x forward sales as of Monday’s close, down from a peak of 10.3x on May 28, the day the stock set its 52-week high:
That’s still nearly twice its five-year average of 2.1x. The stock is 69% below its May high, but it isn’t cheap against its own history.
The 11 analysts who cover Redwire have an average price target of $14, about 82% above Monday’s close. Piper’s $11 sits about 40% above it.
The main risk is dilution. Redwire’s diluted share count rose from 66.2 million in 2024 to 120 million in 2025:
I wouldn’t be surprised if a company still losing $41 million a quarter sold more stock.
Hold, and wait for Nov. 4
I wouldn’t sell into this drop. Redwire spent the month winning orders, and its stock fell with the whole group.
But I wouldn’t load up yet, either. The stock still isn’t cheap, so I’d want Nov. 4 to show the losses narrowing again before buying more.
Of course, if space stocks keep sliding, even a strong quarter may not stop Redwire from falling with them.
So what is Redwire stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Redwire could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
