Key Takeaways for NVIDIA Stock as of August 2026
- Blowout Beat: Q2 revenue hit $96.22B, 4.4% above Street’s $92.16B estimate and up 105.85% YoY, while adjusted EPS of $2.22 topped the $2.09 estimate by 6.16%.
- Margin Reset: Gross margin guidance drops to 71-72% in Q4 before settling at 72-73% in FY28.
- Supply-Capped Growth: Management guided FY28 revenue to grow ~70% YoY even as customer demand points to 100% growth, leaving NVIDIA supply-constrained through the year.
- Memory Squeeze: CFO Colette Kress called tighter memory supply “a symptom of the same demand surge” driving NVIDIA’s own growth, reframing rising component costs as evidence of AI demand strength.
A record beat and a margin cut landed in the same quarter. Dig into NVDA’s full earnings history on TIKR for free →
NVIDIA’s Record Beat Hides a Gross Margin Reset Investors Can’t Ignore
NVIDIA (NVDA) closed its fiscal second quarter on July 31, 2026 with revenue of $96.22 billion, a number that beat Street’s $92.16 billion estimate by 4.4% and marked the fourth straight quarter of accelerating growth. Revenue climbed 105.85% year over year and 17.90% sequentially, a pace CFO Colette Kress tied to a data center buildout spanning hyperscalers, AI labs, AI natives, enterprises and sovereign customers. Data center revenue rose 18% sequentially to $89 billion, split between $49 billion in hyperscale demand and $40 billion from what NVIDIA calls its ACIE segment, the NeoClouds, enterprises and sovereign clouds sitting outside the traditional hyperscaler base. ACIE revenue jumped 25% sequentially and 138% year over year.
Profitability tracked revenue higher. Adjusted EPS of $2.22 beat the $2.09 estimate by 6.16% and more than doubled from $1.05 a year earlier, while EBITDA of $65.08 billion carried a 67.64% margin, 38 basis points ahead of Street’s model. Net income reached $53.95 billion, up 109.26% year over year. Those figures would normally close the book on the quarter as an unambiguous win for NVIDIA stock.
But the guide told a more complicated story. NVIDIA expects Q3 revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, alongside gross margin cooling to 74%. Management then flagged a deeper slide: margins are expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter before recovering to 72-73% in fiscal 2028, as price increases already executed take hold. The driver is memory. Kress addressed it directly on the Q2 earnings call: “We want to be direct about this rather than let it linger as an open question… Memory scarcity today is being driven in large part by the AI build-out itself and unlike a component that simply raises our cost with no offset benefit. Tighter memory supply is a symptom of the same demand surge that’s driving our own growth.”
That framing turns a cost headwind into a demand signal. It matters because NVIDIA guided full fiscal 2028 revenue growth of approximately 70%, while CEO Jensen Huang said customer demand points closer to 100% growth. The gap is supply, not appetite. Vera Rubin, NVIDIA’s next-generation platform, began production shipments this month with purchase orders already in from every major hyperscaler, and management expects it to represent 20% of Q3 data center revenue. Whether that ramp closes the supply gap faster than memory costs erode margin is the tension this quarter leaves unresolved.
Memory costs are rewriting NVIDIA’s margin path through fiscal 2028. Track NVDA’s margin trends yourself on TIKR for free →
TIKR Values NVDA Stock at $572, Pricing In a Supply-Constrained Ramp to 2031
TIKR’s mid-case model values NVIDIA at $572 by January 2031, implying 173% total return from the current price of $210, or 25% annualized over 4.4 years.
That annualized pace would keep NVIDIA stock among the market’s highest-conviction compounders through the model’s 2031 window, even after the stock’s already outsized run over the past decade.
The target is reachable because NVIDIA’s supply-constrained 70% growth guide for fiscal 2028 undershoots the demand Huang described as closer to 100%, leaving room for upside as Vera Rubin capacity comes online and margins recover to 72-73% behind the reset now underway.
TIKR’s model points to $572 for NVDA stock over the next 4.4 years. Run the numbers yourself on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in NVIDIA Corporation?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
