Key Stats for Nvidia Stock
- Current Price: $204.64
- Target Price (Mid): ~$500
- Street Target: ~$329
- Potential Total Return: ~145%
- Annualized IRR: ~23% / year
What Happened?
Nvidia (NVDA) fell 4.22% to $204.64 on October 30 as Intel’s weak outlook and Amazon’s results revived doubts about AI spending and dragged chip stocks lower. The estimates have been moving the other way. Wall Street’s revenue forecast for Nvidia’s fiscal year ending January 2028 is up 25% since June 30, while the stock sits close to its $206.84 level at the end of the July quarter. Separately, an October 30 notice listed Nvidia among 50 companies objecting to tokenized versions of their stock on ICE and OKX’s planned 24/7 venue, a decision about where its shares trade, not what it earns.
Estimates Rose. The Price Stood Still
In TIKR’s consensus data, fiscal 2028 revenue rose from about $554 billion on June 30 to about $692 billion on November 2. Coverage barely changed, from 55 analysts to 57, so that rise reflects revisions rather than new forecasters. Fiscal 2029 rose 33%, to about $903 billion, though its coverage grew from 27 analysts to 38. Most of both increases came in the quarter to September 30, after Nvidia’s August 26 report, and both have edged up since even as chip stocks fell.
With the price flat, Nvidia’s forward P/E, based on next-12-month estimates, fell from 20.8x at the end of July to 16.9x on October 30. That is below Qualcomm at 17.8x, Lam Research at 23.3x and AMD at 45.2x on TIKR’s competitor page.
Huang’s Pitch: Capturing More of Every Dollar
At Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia conference on September 10, Huang made a pitch, telling the room, “I’m here to sell some NVIDIA stock,” and adding, “As large as we are, we’re insanely misunderstood.” His case had three parts:
- Share of spend: each new architecture takes a bigger share of data center budgets: “Not only are we growing, we’re also capturing more at the same time.”
- Every model: Nvidia runs every model maker’s work, he said, now including Google’s Gemini.
- More buyers: demand now reaches beyond the cloud giants to neoclouds, sovereign AI projects, quant trading firms and drug makers.
The weak point is how few analysts stand behind the furthest numbers. The fiscal 2028 estimate draws on 57 analysts, fiscal 2029 on 38, and fiscal 2030 on just 8. Nvidia’s financing guarantees for customers and a Justice Department inquiry into its Hugging Face deal also remain open risks.
TIKR tracks 62 analysts on Nvidia. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nvidia, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nvidia’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $204.64
- Target Price (Mid): ~$500
- Potential Total Return: ~145%
- Annualized IRR: ~23% / year
The mid case rests on the same long-dated estimates. If they hold, the target needs no rebound in the P/E. If a cautious outlook pulls them down, the thinly covered later years can fall fast and take the mid case with them.
Conclusion
Nvidia reports on November 17 after the close, against guidance of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and a Street average of about $109 billion. The bigger test is the January-quarter outlook, where analysts expect about $124 billion. A guide above that backs the upgrades the stock has ignored. A guide below it would mean the price was right to stall.
So what is Nvidia stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Nvidia could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
