The bear case on NVIDIA (NVDA) goes like this: AI tokens get cheaper, GPU rents fall with them, and returns on all that Nvidia hardware shrink.
So far, the rental market isn’t cooperating.
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal asked on X whether GPU rental rates are “a more useful signal” than token indices. He was replying to Warren Pies, who had just posted: “B200 rental rates up 30% YTD.”
In a follow-up post, Pies called B200 demand “insatiable,” with availability at 0% in his own index.
If companies renting out Nvidia chips earn more per GPU than a year ago, that cuts right against the bear case.
Does it show up at Nvidia?
Tight supply should mean pricing power for the chipmaker itself. Gross margin is the place to check.
Gross margin reached 75% in fiscal 2025 and slipped to about 71% last year. That’s still far above the 57% Nvidia posted just three years ago, so the pricing power is holding up.
Analysts’ forecasts tell the story from another angle.
Analysts expect revenue to nearly double to about $412 billion this fiscal year, up from $216 billion last year. They see it reaching roughly $893 billion by fiscal 2029.
Nebius plans to raise prices next week, and a JPMorgan upgrade flagging rising compute pricing sent Nebius up 6% on the day.
Here’s the catch
Pies said Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer is “focusing on older, less consequential, GPUs (A100, H100).” That split raises a fair question. Is the B200 squeeze a lasting trend, or a short scarcity window for the newest chip that closes once supply catches up?
What’s already priced in?
Nvidia trades at about 19 times forward earnings, well below its three year average of roughly 31 times and close to its low of 17.5 times.
If rents keep climbing and estimates keep rising, today’s multiple suggests the market isn’t fully pricing that in. But if B200 rents follow older chips lower, those estimates could come down with them.
So what is NVIDIA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what NVDA could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use. Value NVIDIA for free.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
