Key Takeaways
- NuScale Power has lost 84% over the past year, and on Friday Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target to $15 from $20 while keeping its Overweight rating.
- Third-quarter revenue fell to $281,000, and there is still no date for the binding TVA agreement the bull case depends on.
- Cantor’s $15 works out to about 116x forward sales, more than twice the stock’s five-year average, while 2027 revenue estimates have fallen to $120 million from $320.6 million.
- $15 within a year asks too much until NuScale signs an equipment contract that shows what it earns on each module.
NuScale Power (SMR) has lost 84% of its value over the past year, and on Friday Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target to $15 from $20. It kept its Overweight rating, and $15 is still 195% above Friday’s $5.08 close.
That close came after a 16% jump on Friday, as a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss lifted the stock. Cantor’s cut landed the same day.
The TVA Deal Keeps Slipping
NuScale’s bull case rests on ENTRA1, its exclusive sales partner, signing a binding power purchase agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority for up to 6 gigawatts. In May, CFO Ramsey Hamady called an agreement later in 2026 a “strong possibility.”
Barclays downgraded the stock to Underweight on Oct. 20, warning that the talks could stretch into 2027. On Thursday’s call, CEO John Hopkins called them “a process,” adding: “It’s been lengthy, we know.”
Shareholders have paid for the wait. NuScale had 410.5 million Class A shares at Sept. 30, up 29% from 318.5 million at the end of 2025. Revenue fell to $281,000 in the quarter, from $8.2 million a year earlier, after its engineering work on Romania’s RoPower project ended.
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Cantor’s Bet Is on the Order
On Thursday’s call, Cantor’s Derek Soderberg asked whether a signed PPA would trigger a module order. Hopkins said yes, but Hamady clarified that a PPA would first bring engineering work, with modules sold under a separate agreement between NuScale and ENTRA1. That’s a longer road than $15 implies, and the rest of the Street is far more cautious.
The average target fell from $41 to $11 over the year to Oct. 28, which leaves Cantor’s $15 about 40% above it and near the top of the range:
Revenue expectations also fell sharply. At the end of September 2025, analysts expected $320.6 million in 2027. Now they expect $120 million:
With no profits yet, the multiple that matters is forward sales. It was 41x on Nov. 2, below the five-year average of 48x, and about 39x at Friday’s close:
Cantor’s $15 works out to about 116x forward sales, more than twice that average.
The Order NuScale Still Doesn’t Have
A TVA deal would cost NuScale money before it brings any in. Under its agreement with ENTRA1, a binding PPA triggers a second milestone payment worth 35% of the total, more than twice the first payment of $507.4 million.
So $15 within a year asks too much. It needs a signed PPA and an equipment contract, and NuScale still can’t date the first one. At about $2.2 billion, the stock trades close to its $1.9 billion of cash and investments, but that milestone payment and about $65 million a quarter in operating costs would draw it down. The upside still waits on the order.
Hamady said an order would bring “further clarity on margins.” Until a contract shows what NuScale keeps on each module, I’d treat Friday’s jump as relief, not a re-rating.
So What Is NuScale Power Stock Actually Worth?
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