Key Takeaways
- NuScale Power hit a 52-week low on Oct. 20 after Barclays downgraded it to Underweight and cut its target to $5 from $11, and it reports third-quarter results on Thursday.
- NuScale still has no binding plant order, and Barclays expects talks between its partner ENTRA1 and the Tennessee Valley Authority to run until at least early 2027.
- TVA now holds a construction permit for a GE Vernova reactor, and Wedbush is backing Oklo over NuScale.
- Without an order, Thursday’s report needs to show a steady cash burn and little new stock sold, and Barclays has the better argument until a contract is signed.
NuScale Power (SMR) reports third-quarter results after the close on Thursday, Nov. 5, as Wall Street turns against it. The stock hit a 52-week low on Oct. 20, when Barclays downgraded it to Underweight and cut its price target to $5 from $11.
This week, Wedbush initiated coverage at Underperform with its own $5 target, while backing Oklo (OKLO) and X-energy. Wedbush analyst Seth Basham put NuScale’s problem plainly: “NuScale holds the only NRC Design Certification for a small modular reactor (SMR), yet it has not signed a binding, financed module order in its 19-year history.”
The utility NuScale is counting on also has a small reactor of its own in the works. In late September, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the Tennessee Valley Authority’s construction permit for a BWRX-300 at its Clinch River site. That’s the reactor GE Vernova (GEV) designs with Hitachi.
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Still waiting on TVA
NuScale sells through ENTRA1, which holds the exclusive rights and has a deal with TVA for up to 6 gigawatts, about 72 modules. That deal is non-binding, and Barclays expects ENTRA1 and TVA to keep negotiating until at least early 2027.
Management’s timeline has slipped, too. In May, NuScale’s CFO called a TVA agreement later in 2026 a “strong possibility.” On the August call, management said talks were “active and progressing,” with no date attached. (Its Oct. 29 contract with Doosan Enerbility puts its first upper reactor coolant system into production, but no customer was named.)
Analysts expect revenue to go from $20.4 million this year to $236 million in 2028, and NuScale needs a signed order to get there:
That outlook has already been cut: the 2027 estimate stood at $320.6 million at the end of September 2025. If NuScale gives no firmer TVA timeline on Thursday, I’d expect it to slide again.
Even a signed deal costs NuScale cash first
NuScale pays ENTRA1 a milestone contribution as each project advances. The first, triggered by the non-binding TVA deal, cost $507.4 million in 2025. A binding agreement would trigger the second, 35% of the total, before any module order exists.
Meanwhile, the business brings in almost nothing. In the second quarter, NuScale earned $13.9 million of investment income on its cash and $75,000 of revenue.
So the burn matters. Free cash flow was negative in each of the last seven quarters, and the worst quarters carried the ENTRA1 payments:
Those payments came to $247.5 million in 2025 and $259.9 million in the first half of 2026, so the second quarter’s $58.6 million is closer to the everyday pace. With $1.9 billion of cash and investments at June 30 and no debt to speak of, NuScale can wait years at that rate.
NuScale pays for the wait with stock instead. Class A shares plus Class B units reached 429.7 million at June 30, up from 231.4 million at the end of 2023. NuScale’s 2026 stock sales averaged $11.14 a share, less than half of 2025’s $23.25, and it filed a new $750 million at-the-market program on Aug. 11. With the stock at a 52-week low, each new share raises less.
What Thursday has to show
NuScale could answer Barclays with a signed order, but Barclays doesn’t expect one this soon. Without one, the report needs to show the wait is affordable:
- Cash and investments close to June’s $1.9 billion, with burn near the second quarter’s $58.6 million
- Operating costs no higher than the second quarter’s $63.9 million, already up from $44.9 million a year earlier
- Little use of the $750 million program, against 410.4 million Class A shares on July 30
Power buyers are signing, just not with NuScale
GE Vernova’s quarter shows power buyers have money to commit. Its orders jumped 96% organically to $29.3 billion, and its Power segment signed 11 gigawatts of new gas equipment contracts. TVA’s permit isn’t a GE Vernova equipment sale yet. But if TVA’s first small reactor comes from GE Vernova, how much room does that leave for ENTRA1’s 72 modules?
Oklo faces its own test when it reports on Friday. Wedbush rates it Outperform with a $36 target, citing its Groves test reactor reaching criticality in under 11 months. But Oklo’s biggest customer deal isn’t fully signed either: it has a prepayment agreement with Meta, and the power purchase agreement is still to come. If NuScale offers no order on Thursday, Oklo’s report will show whether investors keep paying for unsigned pipelines.
Barclays has the better argument for now
Until ENTRA1 and TVA sign, I side with Barclays. NuScale can’t change that on Thursday without an order. But a steady burn and a light share count would show it can afford the wait without asking much more of shareholders.
Of course, an order doesn’t need an earnings date. ENTRA1 and TVA can announce one whenever they sign, and that day would matter far more for NuScale than Thursday.
So what is NuScale Power stock actually worth?
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