Key Takeaways
- Raymond James raised its Super Micro Computer price target to $65 from $48 on Nov. 4, 107% above the Nov. 3 close, after a year in which the stock fell 40%.
- Super Micro’s September-quarter revenue rose 298% to $19.9 billion, and management raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $72 billion to $82 billion.
- The $65 target works out to about 14x forward earnings, close to the stock’s five-year average. But the company still used $434 million of operating cash last quarter, and one customer took 44% of revenue.
- A rebound looks reasonable, but until Super Micro’s operating cash flow turns positive, the Street’s $43 average target is the more likely place for the stock to land within a year.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) just reported a quarter in which revenue nearly quadrupled, and the stock is still down 40% over the past year. Raymond James sees a big rebound: on Nov. 4, analyst Simon Leopold kept his Outperform rating and raised his target to $65 from $48, 107% above the $31.39 close on Nov. 3.
A miss, an indictment and a $5.6 billion raise
The slide started on Nov. 4, 2025, when Super Micro reported September-quarter revenue of $5.0 billion, short of its own $6 billion to $7 billion guidance.
On March 19, US prosecutors charged co-founder Wally Liaw and two others with diverting about $2.5 billion of servers built with Nvidia chips to China. A board investigation cleared current senior management, but Liaw’s trial isn’t until March 2027.
Then came the bill. Free cash flow was negative $7.0 billion in the year to June 2026, and Super Micro raised $5.6 billion that month, selling common and mandatory convertible preferred stock.
TIKR tracks 18 analysts on Super Micro Computer. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Super Micro Computer, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Super Micro Computer’s Analyst Ratings
A blowout quarter and a higher target
September-quarter revenue rose 298% to $19.9 billion, above even the preliminary range Super Micro gave in October, and adjusted EPS of $1.81 crushed guidance of $1.01 to $1.10. Management also raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $72 billion to $82 billion.
Raymond James named the main risk itself: customer concentration, and the chance that the biggest customer moves to white-box servers as it scales. One customer took 44% of the quarter’s revenue.
Does $65 add up?
The 18 analysts who cover Super Micro have an average target of $43, down from $52 a year ago, and the highest was $60 before the report.
The targets fell even as estimates rose. Analysts expect normalized EPS of $4.75 for the year to June 2027, up from the $3.45 they expected a year ago:
A quarter that beat its own profit guidance by that much gives them room to go higher.
So the stock got cheaper. It traded at 6.4x forward earnings at the Nov. 2 close, near its five-year low of 6.2x and well under its 15x average:
Raymond James’s $65 works out to about 14x the $4.75 analysts expect over the next twelve months. On paper, that’s just the stock’s usual multiple.
The cash has to come first
Even in a record quarter, Super Micro used $434 million of cash in operations, as inventory climbed to $15.1 billion from $12.9 billion in June. And CFO Mark Long said on the Nov. 3 call that he expects customer concentration “to stay elevated while these build-outs run.”
A low multiple has been the market’s answer to that cash burn all year, and I don’t expect investors to change their minds after one strong quarter. A rebound looks reasonable, but I’d count on the Street’s $43 within a year before Raymond James’s $65.
The December-quarter report, due in early February, is the next check: positive operating cash flow there would give $65 a much better shot.
So what is Super Micro stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Super Micro could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
