Key Takeaways
- Rosenblatt upgraded Navitas Semiconductor to Buy on Nov. 4 with a $13 target, 52% above the price, after a 75% drop from its May high.
- Third-quarter revenue rose 38% from a year earlier to $14.0 million, and management guided the fourth quarter to $16.0 million.
- The $13 target works out to 55x forward sales, against a three-year average of 31x, and analysts still expect a loss in 2027.
- The orders look real, but the target asks a rich price for a business that’s still losing money, so the 800-volt orders need to show up in revenue first.
Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) has lost 75% since its May 26 closing high. On Nov. 4, Rosenblatt Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $13 target, 52% above the $8.56 price.
The rally came with a lot of new shares
In May and June, Navitas sold $380.7 million of new stock at an average of $21.89 a share, its second-quarter report shows. By June 30, it had 261.1 million shares outstanding, against 188.1 million at the end of 2024.
Then on its July 27 call, management said the native 800-volt step, which brings Navitas’s biggest jump in GaN sales to AI data centers, would come in late 2027 and early 2028. In November 2025, it had pointed to 2027.
Rosenblatt sees an inflection point
Rosenblatt’s Kevin Cassidy said Navitas “handily beat” third-quarter estimates as its high-power strategy reached an inflection point, with orders well ahead of shipments and a backlog into mid-2027.
The quarter backs that up. Revenue rose 38% from a year earlier to $14.0 million, and management guided the fourth quarter to $16.0 million.
On the third-quarter call, CEO Chris Allexandre said of AI infrastructure, its data center and power grid business: “we believe this business is poised to triple in the calendar 2027.”
TIKR tracks 7 analysts on Navitas Semiconductor. How many say “Buy”?
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Does 55x sales add up?
Rosenblatt’s $13 sits below the Street’s average target, which has held around $14 since May, up from $8 a year ago.
Seven analysts cover Navitas, with targets from $8 to $21. They expect revenue to climb from $47.7 million this year to $116 million in 2028.
Those estimates have come down a long way: in March 2025, analysts expected $110.4 million of revenue in 2026 alone. The fourth-quarter guide should nudge this year’s figure up, but they still expect a loss of $0.12 a share in 2027.
At the Nov. 2 close, Navitas traded at 34x forward sales, a little above its three-year average of 31x.
Rosenblatt’s $13 works out to 55x forward sales, far above that average. At the May peak, investors paid 162x.
I’d wait for the 800-volt orders to show up
Navitas has time, with about $405 million of cash after paying for Claros and no debt. But fourth-quarter non-GAAP operating expenses are guided to $25.0 million, Claros included, on $16.0 million of revenue.
The orders look real. But $13 asks investors to pay far more than Navitas’s usual multiple for a business that’s still losing money, and I’d want the 800-volt orders in revenue first. We’ll get the first read with the fourth-quarter report early next year.
So what is Navitas Semiconductor stock actually worth?
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