Key Takeaways
- Nucor guided Q3 2026 diluted EPS to $5.55 to $5.65 against a $5.89 consensus, and the stock was the S&P 500’s worst performer on September 18.
- Q2’s reported $5.04 leaned on a $0.20 Helion gain and $130 million in pig iron refunds, and management expects neither to repeat in Q3.
- Even on that cleaner base, the $5.60 midpoint sits about 16% above Q2’s adjusted $4.84 and more than doubles Q3 2025’s $2.63.
The guide missed consensus yet still points to Nucor’s best quarter since Q2 2023. Compare Nucor’s quarterly EPS against Street estimates on TIKR for free →
Nucor Stock Sold Off on a Guide That Tops Every Recent Quarter
The release went out after the close on September 17. By the next morning, Nucor (NUE) was down 2% premarket at $260.37, and by early afternoon it was off 6.4%, the worst move in the S&P 500 that day. Steel Dynamics (STLD) fell alongside it after a similar guidance miss.
The market judged the number against consensus. Nucor’s own recent quarters tell a different story.
Net income rose from $0.61 billion in Q3 2025 to $1.16 billion in Q2 2026 while diluted shares held at 0.23 billion. The EPS climb came from earnings, not buybacks.
Q2’s $5.04 had two helpers. The $0.20 Helion markup was non-cash, and the $4.84 adjusted figure still carried $130 million of pig iron refunds. Spread across 230 million diluted shares, those refunds work out to roughly $0.57 a share before tax.
CFO Jack Sullivan was clear on the Q2 2026 earnings call: “we do not expect any further cash refunds to materially benefit us in the third quarter or beyond.”
So the Q3 guide is climbing over a lower real base. The $5.60 midpoint would top every quarter in the chart going back to late 2024, when Nucor earned $1.22. It gets there with Raw Materials earnings expected to fall on weaker scrap pricing and elevated iron ore costs, leaving steel mill margins and record shipments of 7.1 million tons to do the work.
The Street Is Still Betting on Another Beat
TIKR consensus for Q3 still reads $5.84, $0.19 above the top of the guide. That gap has a history behind it. Nucor guided Q1 to $2.70 to $2.80 and delivered $3.23, then guided Q2 adjusted EPS to $4.50 to $4.60 and delivered $4.84.
The harder question sits further out. The Street expects $19.18 for 2026 and only $19.78 for 2027, about 3% growth, even as Leon Topalian calls 2027 potentially “a very special year.” Start-up costs explain some of that caution. Pre-operating costs hit $120 million in Q2 and should stay elevated through 2027 as the West Virginia mill ramps toward 50% utilization.
At $244.49, the stock trades at about 12.7 times the 2026 estimate on a simple calculation. Sentiment has not helped: Berkshire Hathaway cut its stake by 52.5% in Q2, and an executive vice president sold shares near $274 in August.
The September sell-off looks like a calibration miss rather than a crack in the business. The principal risk is policy, since Nucor fell more than 6% on one Canadian tariff report in August and rose about 4.6% on another days later.
The late-October Q3 report is the first test. A result above $5.60 with no refunds behind it would confirm the clean step-up, and December’s Q4 guide will show whether Nucor can hold above the Street’s $5.19.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
