Key Takeaways
- Navitas reports third-quarter results on Nov. 3, with its stock up 12% in 2026 but still 73% below its June high.
- The fourth-quarter guide matters more than the quarter itself, because analysts’ full-year revenue forecast depends on it.
- Free cash flow was -$32.2 million in the second quarter, and management has said Navitas needs quarterly revenue in the high $30 millions to break even.
- The stock still prices in an AI data-center ramp, so a fourth-quarter guide of $15 million or better and a smaller cash burn are the numbers to watch.
Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) reports its third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The stock is up 12% in 2026, but it’s still 73% below the high it hit on June 3.
Investors have bought the AI power-chip story, and management keeps making it bigger. Meanwhile, Navitas is still selling about $10 million of chips a quarter.
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The “power wall” pitch keeps growing
Navitas’s pitch is that its gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) chips belong in the 800-volt racks that AI data centers are moving to. On Oct. 6, it closed its Claros deal, worth up to $232.8 million. The deal adds chips that deliver power right at the processor.
President and CEO Chris Allexandre has described the problem Claros is meant to solve: “This ‘power wall’ has restricted next-generation xPUs in megawatt-scale server racks from achieving the next wave of AI performance.”
Navitas followed the deal with an 800-volt design with Microchip on Oct. 5 and a 24-kilowatt power board developed with Nvidia on Oct. 12. Management says AI-infrastructure revenue grew more than 50% from the prior quarter in both the first and second quarters. It expects that business to make up more than a third of sales by the end of 2026.
But the timeline keeps slipping. In November 2025, management pointed to 2027 as the big year for 800 volts. By July, it said the native 800-volt step would speed up in late 2027 and early 2028. It also doesn’t expect Claros to drive growth until around 2028 or 2029.
The revenue has a long way to go
Second-quarter revenue was $10.5 million. That was up 22% from the first quarter but down 27% from a year earlier, as Navitas walked away from phone chargers. Management guided the third quarter to $13.5 million, plus or minus $0.5 million.
Analysts expect 2027 revenue to come in about 56% above 2026’s, but still below the $83.3 million Navitas did in 2024.
The 2026 estimate already counts on a strong fourth quarter. Navitas did $19.1 million in the first half. Add the $13.5 million guide, and hitting the $47.7 million full-year consensus takes about $15 million in the fourth quarter. A guide below that would pull estimates down again. (Back in March 2025, analysts expected $110.4 million for 2026.)
Even $15 million a quarter is far from breakeven. In May, management said Navitas needs quarterly revenue in the high $30 millions to cover its costs. That’s nearly triple the third-quarter guide.
Margins are steady, but the cash burn isn’t
On TIKR’s figures, gross margin has stayed between 37.7% and 38.7% for four straight quarters, below the 42.2% of late 2023.
Management guides third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin to 39.7%, a small step up. At that rate, each extra dollar of sales brings in about 40 cents of gross profit, so margins can’t close the gap until revenue scales.
The cash burn is the bigger worry. Free cash flow went from -$8.2 million in the last quarter of 2025 to -$32.2 million in the second quarter of 2026.
Much of the jump came from working capital. Navitas prepaid about $15 million for spare wafers from TSMC, which plans to stop making GaN chips in July 2027, while it moves production to GlobalFoundries.
Navitas had $557.4 million of cash on June 30, before it paid $126.4 million in cash for Claros. Most of that cushion came from selling $380.7 million of stock in May and June. Shares outstanding rose from 188.1 million at the end of 2024 to 261.1 million by June 30.
The guide matters more than the quarter
Power-chip investors just showed what they care about. Allegro MicroSystems, whose new 800-volt data center products compete with Navitas, fell 7% after beating estimates and guiding above them. That happened even though its CEO said forward demand had strengthened significantly. Its guide still meant growth would slow to 23%, from 29%.
Navitas’s own headlines haven’t held the stock up either. The Microchip design, the Nvidia board and an Army award for 10-kilovolt SiC chips all landed within a month, and the stock fell about 20% over that stretch anyway (through Oct. 27).
So on Tuesday, these are the numbers that count:
- Third-quarter revenue at or above the $13.5 million guide
- A fourth-quarter guide of about $15 million or better
- A cash burn back toward the first quarter’s $16.8 million, with no new stock sales after June 30
The way I see it, the “power wall” is a real problem, and having Nvidia and Microchip as partners gives Navitas a real shot at solving it. But even after the fall, the stock traded at about 36x forward sales at the Oct. 26 close, above its 31x three-year average. That’s a lot to pay for revenue that’s mostly a 2027 and 2028 story. I’d want the fourth-quarter guide in hand before buying.
Of course, management expects its first 800-volt “sidecar” rack programs to ramp in the first half of 2027. If Tuesday’s report names a customer for one of them, I’d stop waiting.
So what is Navitas stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
