Key Takeaways
- Pagaya Technologies posted record third-quarter revenue of $390.5 million and raised its 2026 GAAP net income outlook to $162-$182 million.
- Upstart reports on Nov. 3, and over three years its quarterly revenue has more than doubled while its GAAP profit has swung between gains and losses.
- Analysts expect Upstart’s normalized EPS to reach $2.26 in 2026, up from $1.89 in 2025, but its second-quarter profit depended on interest and fair-value gains on loans it holds.
- A second straight GAAP profit and an unchanged full-year guide would keep that estimate on track, even though third-quarter loan volume came in a bit below the second quarter’s.
Pagaya Technologies (PGY) just reported record revenue and raised its 2026 profit outlook. Next up is Upstart Holdings (UPST), which reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, Nov. 3, before the open.
Pagaya’s results are the closest look we’ll get at AI-driven consumer lending before Upstart reports. So the question for Upstart is whether that same lending demand shows up in its profits.
Pagaya’s profit more than doubled
Pagaya’s third quarter set records across the board:
- Revenue and other income of $390.5 million, up 11.5% from a year earlier
- Network volume of $3.61 billion, up 28.7%
- GAAP net income of $49.7 million, up from $22.5 million
- A raised 2026 GAAP net income outlook of $162-$182 million
Total costs and operating expenses rose just 2.9%, to $277.9 million, so most of the extra revenue went straight to the bottom line.
Upstart hasn’t shown that kind of steady leverage yet.
TIKR tracks 16 analysts on Upstart. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Upstart, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Upstart’s Analyst Ratings
Analysts are counting on profit growth
Nine analysts expect Upstart’s normalized EPS to reach $2.26 in 2026, up 20% from $1.89 in 2025, and $3.52 in 2027:
The GAAP numbers are much lower. Upstart earned $0.45 a share in 2025 under GAAP, and analysts expect $0.68 for 2026.
Revenue has kept up. Upstart’s quarterly revenue has more than doubled over the last three years, to $377 million in the quarter to June 30, 2026:
That’s 42% more than a year earlier, much faster growth than Pagaya’s.
GAAP profit has been bumpier. Upstart’s quarterly net income turned positive in mid-2025, then fell back to a loss in the first quarter of 2026:
Its best quarter of the 12 was last year’s third, at $31.8 million. That’s the number Upstart has to beat on Nov. 3.
The June quarter’s profit came from Upstart’s own loans
The $16.5 million Upstart earned in the June quarter was less than 5% of revenue. Contribution profit of $193.1 million fell just short of $195.2 million in other operating costs. A $16.7 million net gain from interest and fair-value changes on the loans and stakes Upstart holds turned that into $14.6 million of operating income.
Those marks get worse when credit does. Management said a rise in the Upstart Macro Index, the company’s gauge of how much the economy raises default risk, cut fair values in the second quarter. The index was 1.49 on Oct. 5, up from 1.39 at the end of 2025. Over the same stretch, Upstart’s maximum exposure to losses under its loss-sharing funding deals rose to $1.29 billion at June 30, from $931.8 million at the end of 2025. That compares with $797.5 million of stockholders’ equity.
Watch the full-year guide too
With Upstart, I expect the outlook to move the stock as much as the quarter does. In its second-quarter release, management guided to about $1.4 billion of 2026 revenue and about $294 million of adjusted EBITDA. Hitting that guide means about 8% more revenue in the second half than in the first, at an adjusted EBITDA margin near 24%. The first-half margin was 17%.
That won’t be easy. Upstart’s third-quarter originations came in at $4.12 billion, a little below the second quarter’s $4.23 billion.
A second straight profit, and the guide intact
Pagaya’s quarter makes me confident that demand for these loans is holding up. I’m much less sure about Upstart’s bottom line. It still depends on how Upstart values the loans it holds, and a higher Upstart Macro Index already pushed those values down once this year.
So I’m cautious going in. A second straight GAAP profit and an unchanged full-year guide would keep the $2.26 estimate on track. With third-quarter volume a bit lighter than the second’s, that’s a harder bar to clear than Pagaya’s beat makes it look.
Of course, if the index eases back toward 1.4, Upstart’s loan values and its volume could both improve quickly.
So what is Upstart stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Upstart could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
