Key Takeaways
- Musk says Tesla will refund many Cybertruck deposits because it can’t fill every order before the line shuts in about eight months. Two days earlier, he had announced an extra shift to try to get all orders done.
- The truck is a small part of Tesla’s vehicle business: Tesla built only 7,004 vehicles outside Model 3 and Model Y in Q3, while its automotive segment, including services and other revenue, generated $25.17 billion.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS to climb 88% to $3.24 by 2028. At Friday’s $358 close, that’s about 111 times earnings two years out.
- That puts the payoff from dropping Cybertruck on Cybercab. The first real check is Tesla’s fourth-quarter report in late January.
Tesla (TSLA) is giving up Cybertruck sales it says it could have made. Elon Musk posted on X on Monday, November 9, that Tesla “will have to return deposits for a lot of people” because it can’t fill every outstanding order before the Texas line shuts in about eight months.
That follows his Saturday post announcing an extra shift to try to clear all outstanding orders, when he already warned the backlog was more than Tesla could build before dismantling the line. The wind-down itself came on Friday, with Gigafactory Texas space going to Cybercab, Tesla’s two-seat robotaxi.
Musk Says Demand Isn’t the Problem
Musk framed the refunds as a capacity call. The order rate “far exceeds our production rate,” he wrote, and he rejected reports that the truck loses money. His case is that Cybertruck’s complexity costs Tesla more in lost Cybercab output than the truck earns.
He didn’t say how many deposits will go back or what they add up to, and Tesla hasn’t published anything on it.
What the numbers do show is how small the truck is. Tesla built 7,004 vehicles outside Model 3 and Model Y in the third quarter, a group that includes Cybertruck, while its automotive segment brought in $25.17 billion.
Losing some of a few thousand trucks a quarter barely registers against a $25 billion-a-quarter automotive segment. Returning deposits only gives back money Tesla already owed. The real cost is the truck sales it gives up, and what it gets in return is the bigger question.
What the Street Already Expects
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $1.72 in 2026, rising to $2.16 in 2027 and $3.24 in 2028, an 88% climb in two years.
Even on that 2028 figure, Tesla stock at Friday’s $358 close trades at about 111 times earnings two years out. Musk expects Robotaxi to start showing up in results from the second quarter of 2027, so 2028, when estimates jump 50%, is the year Cybercab has to carry.
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Conclusion
On the numbers, trading Cybertruck orders for Cybercab output is the right call. The truck is too small to matter, and Musk says the line time is worth more on Cybercab. But that makes the decision a bet. At 111 times 2028 earnings, the stock already pays for Cybercab working, and each returned deposit is Tesla leaning harder into that outcome. The first real check comes with the fourth-quarter report in late January, when Tesla lays out its 2027 plans.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
