Key Takeaways
- Cathie Wood’s ARK and dozens of other funds held Cerebras (CBRS), Intel (INTC), KLA (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), or Lam Research (LRCX) as of June 30, and all five stocks have fallen 53% to 59% since.
- Cerebras was a new holding for every fund that owned it. It’s down 59% since June 30, but analysts’ average target has barely moved.
- Cerebras’s margins are shrinking, and a short seller claims its chips wear out early, so it’s hard to trust its 206% upside to the consensus target before its mid-November report.
- Applied Materials looks like the better buy, since analysts have raised its earnings estimates while the stock fell.
Some of the best-known growth investors went into the summer heavy on chip stocks. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, Brad Gerstner’s Altimeter Capital and 15 other funds held Cerebras at June 30. That comes from their 13Fs for that quarter, filed in mid-August and still their latest.
Far bigger dollars sat in Lam Research, Applied Materials, KLA and Intel. All five have fallen 53% to 59% from their June 30 prices.
Altimeter bet big on Cerebras
Cerebras only listed in May, so every fund holding it at June 30 was new to the stock.
- Altimeter made it its second-biggest holding: 7.23 million shares worth $1.60 billion, 16.2% of its 13F stocks.
- Atreides Management, an $11 billion fund, held $687 million of shares plus call options with a notional value of $155 million.
- Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global, a $78 billion hedge fund, held $663 million, and
- ARK held $169 million, 1.1% of its 13F stocks.
Cerebras is down 59% from its June 30 price and now trades way below its $185 IPO price. That’s the stock’s move from quarter-end to the last close.
The filings don’t show what any of these funds paid, or whether they still own it.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Cerebras. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Cerebras, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Cerebras’ Analyst Ratings
Analysts haven’t budged on Cerebras
Cerebras hasn’t given holders much to cheer since. Its Q2 revenue of $180.1 million missed the $193.6 million analysts expected. Its core gross margin slipped to 40.6% from 46.5% in Q1, and it guided to 38% to 40% for Q3.
In the last week of October, Cerebras landed an Oracle cloud deal. Then short seller Culper Research claimed its wafers break down after about two years, against the three to five years Cerebras gave in its draft IPO filings.
Culper profits if the stock falls. But if it’s right, the hardware Cerebras sells and rents out wears out far sooner than the company has said.
Through all of it, the Street’s average target slipped only from $291 in early June to $275:
13 analysts cover Cerebras. Even the lowest target, cut to $175 from $250 in June, is well above the $90 close. I wouldn’t lean on the 206% upside to the average, though: it held steady while the stock fell to 77% below its 52-week high.
The toolmakers fell while their estimates rose
Philippe Laffont’s Coatue, a $93 billion hedge fund, put its biggest chip dollars elsewhere. At June 30 it held $4.09 billion of Lam, its No. 2 holding, and $3.05 billion of Applied, beside new stakes of $1.69 billion in Intel and $1.55 billion in Cerebras.
Oaktop Capital Management, a $2.4 billion fund, went further, with 39.2% of its 13F stocks in KLA and 36% in Lam.
Applied’s drop includes a 17% slide in the week after a forecast-free investor day. Yet analysts have raised their fiscal 2027 EPS estimate 13% since the end of June.
At about 19x forward earnings, the stock trades close to its five-year average of 21x on TIKR. The Street’s average target nearly tripled over the past year, to $628, 89% above the last close:
Lam’s holdup is supply. It guided December-quarter revenue to $8.6 billion, and CFO Doug Bettinger said on Lam’s earnings call the figure “would have been a bit higher if not for some near-term supply chain constraints.”
Lam still expects industry equipment spending to top $200 billion in 2027, and analysts only trimmed their targets afterward. The average now sits at $364, 82% above the close:
Lam’s lowest target, $255, is above its close too.
Intel is the outlier, because its own outlook got worse. On Oct. 29, it guided Q4 revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, below the roughly $15.6 billion analysts expected, with a 38% non-GAAP gross margin. At about 40x forward earnings, that’s a lot to pay for a company guiding lower.
Applied is the one I’d buy
The toolmakers carry the old risk of every equipment boom: customers build, then pause.
Applied’s two biggest customers supplied 34% of its revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, so if either one cut back, it would show up fast.
Still, if I could only buy one of these right now, it’d be Applied Materials. Its stock has more than halved since June 30 while analysts raised their earnings estimates.
Cerebras could still prove Altimeter and the rest right, but I’d wait for its mid-November report.
I’d want a margin inside its 38% to 40% guide, and a real answer to Culper on how long its wafers last. The funds’ next 13Fs, due by Nov. 16, will show who still held it at Sept. 30.
So what is Cerebras stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
