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Key Takeaways
- Tesla rose 5% today after Elon Musk said it will wind down Cybertruck production in Texas around mid-2027 to build more Cybercabs.
- Part of the gain is a rebound from the post-midterm selloff, and Rocket Lab, Applied Materials and Lumentum bounced too.
- Ending the slow-selling Cybertruck costs Tesla little and frees its factory for the robotaxis investors are paying for.
- The Cybercab’s real hurdles are deployment and a federal safety audit.
Tesla (TSLA) is up 5% today after Elon Musk wrote on X that Tesla “will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production.”
Tesla slid for two days after Democrats’ midterm sweep put a SpaceX merger on a slower track. Today high-growth stocks are bouncing together: Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up 11%.
The truck never hit its numbers
Musk once predicted 250,000 Cybertruck sales a year. Tesla’s “other models” line, the Cybertruck plus the Model S and X, delivered 8,295 vehicles in the third quarter, under 2% of its 486,532 deliveries.
So ending it costs Tesla very little.
Investors are paying for robotaxis
Analysts expect Tesla’s normalized EPS to climb from $1.66 in 2025 to $3.24 in 2028, still below the $4.07 it earned in 2022:
Yet investors were paying 189x forward earnings going into today, against a five-year average of 108x:
At today’s price, it’s even higher. That’s a bet on Cybercab profits the 2028 estimates don’t show yet.
And Tesla said last month that its Texas line already builds Cybercabs faster than it can put them into service. The harder parts are deployment, with six Robotaxi cities as of October, and an NHTSA audit of how Tesla certified a Cybercab with no steering wheel or pedals.
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Tesla had company
Chip stocks led today’s rebound. Credo Technology (CRDO) is up 6% after losing 26% in two days. Applied Materials (AMAT) is up 5% as investors cheered Lam Research’s $25 billion buyback. Rocket Lab, which fell 12% Thursday, reports third-quarter results early next week.
Lumentum (LITE) is up 4% along with Marvell, which is buying it in an all-stock deal expected to close in the first half of 2028. That matters for Tesla too: The Future Fund’s Gary Black has said a SpaceX-Tesla merger “could take just as long” to close.
Tesla made the right call
Still, today’s jump is mostly the market’s bounce, and to earn its multiple, Tesla needs paying Cybercab riders in far more than six cities.
Of course, the Cybercab’s Dallas launch, set for November, and Tesla’s fourth-quarter report in late January will show how fast that’s happening.
So what is Tesla stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
