Key Takeaways for Moody’s Corporation Stock as of July 2026
- Revenue of $2,185 million landed 5% above Street’s $2,083 million estimate in the second quarter of 2026, with adjusted EPS of $4.68 beating consensus by 10% and climbing 31% year over year.
- Raising the low end of its adjusted EPS guide by $0.10, Moody’s now expects $16.50 to $17 for full-year 2026, a 12% increase at the midpoint, even as it held MIS and MA revenue guidance unchanged at high single-digit growth.
- With rated debt issuance topping $2 trillion for a second consecutive quarter, MIS transaction revenue jumped 34%, driving segment margin to 68%, up 410 basis points from a year earlier.
Moody’s stock just delivered a quarter that beat every line on the earnings table and still got a guide raise that sounded almost cautious. Find out what that combination means on TIKR for free
Record $2 Trillion Issuance Quarter Lifts Moody’s Stock Past Every Estimate
Moody’s Corporation (MCO) posted second-quarter 2026 revenue of $2,185 million, up 15% year over year and 5% above the $2,083.17 million Street estimate, with adjusted diluted EPS of $4.68 clearing the $4.25 consensus by 10%. That print built on strength across both segments rather than a single line item. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1,208 million at a 55.29% margin, up 439 basis points from a year ago, while free cash flow hit $688 million, up 47% year over year.
The engine behind the quarter was Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), the ratings division, which rated more than $2 trillion of debt for a second straight quarter and grew transaction revenue 34%. MIS adjusted operating margin reached 68.3%, up 410 basis points, as the business absorbed record volume without adding cost at the same pace. CEO Rob Fauber framed the scale of the beat directly on the Q2 2026 earnings call: “We achieved 15% revenue growth. We grew adjusted operating income by 25%, expanded adjusted operating margin by 440 basis points to 55.3% and we grew adjusted diluted EPS by 31% to $4.68, and that’s a great progression from the top line to the bottom line.”
That progression came with a catch. Hyperscaler and data center financing drove much of the issuance upside, and those large, frequent investment-grade issuers carry lower average revenue yields than the CLO and CMBS deals Moody’s typically prices richer.
CFO Noemie Heuland explained why the volume beat didn’t translate into a revenue guidance raise: the growth mix “is a bit less rich than we’d expected,” with more coming from data center and financial institution transactions and less from higher-yield structured product. So Moody’s raised its full-year issuance outlook from low to mid-single-digit growth while holding MIS revenue guidance at high single digits.
Moody’s Analytics (MA) told a steadier story. ARR grew nearly 9% to about $3.7 billion, recurring revenue now makes up 99% of segment revenue, and retention held at 95%. MA margin expanded 150 basis points to 33.6%, continuing a run of more than 500 basis points of expansion over two years.
Management raised the low end of its adjusted EPS guide by $0.10 to $16.50-$17, a 12% increase at the midpoint, and lifted share repurchase guidance to up to $3 billion for the year. That’s the second buyback increase in three months, coming after Moody’s had already raised its 2026 repurchase target to $2.5 billion following the first-quarter print, a sign free cash flow keeps outrunning even Moody’s own updated plan.
Heuland called the second-half setup “meaningfully better, lower risk” than three months ago, since the quarter pulled forward recovery that was originally expected in the third quarter against a tough prior-year comp.
Moody’s stock now carries a guide built on a stronger, if less revenue-dense, issuance mix heading into the back half. See how that mix shift shows up in the model on TIKR for free →
TIKR Values Moody’s Stock at $752, Pointing to 54% Total Return by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Moody’s stock at $752 by December 2030, implying 54% total return from the current price of $490, or 10% annualized over 4.4 years.
A 10% annualized return for a business already running a 68.3% margin in its core ratings franchise signals the model is pricing durable execution, not a re-rating story, since compounding at that pace leaves little room needed for multiple expansion from here.
That case leans on the deep currents management laid out on the call: AI-driven infrastructure debt, private credit’s push into retail markets, and MA’s recurring revenue base now at 99% of segment revenue. Those forces support the kind of sustained rated issuance growth and margin durability the model is underwriting through 2030.
Moody’s stock cleared every headline estimate this quarter, and TIKR’s model still sees a 54% total return to $752 ahead. Check the full assumptions behind that target on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Moody’s Corporation?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
