Key Takeaways
- Moderna stock surged 14.2% on October 9 after reports of an NIH-backed initiative to accelerate cancer vaccine development.
- Novavax also gained nearly 16%, reflecting broader enthusiasm for vaccine developers.
- Analysts expect Moderna’s revenue to reach $3.39 billion by 2028, while its valuation remains well above historical levels.
- Moderna’s October 24 Phase 3 melanoma presentation with Merck could be a more important near-term catalyst.
Moderna (MRNA) stock surged 14.2% on Friday, October 9, closing at $225 after reports of a planned NIH-backed cancer vaccine initiative.
The rally also coincided with Moderna’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 index. Meanwhile, Novavax (NVAX) climbed 15.8% as enthusiasm spread across vaccine developers.
Why Moderna Stock Surged
The Foundation for the NIH describes the Therapeutic Cancer Vaccines Initiative as a $200 million public-private effort to coordinate clinical trials, research infrastructure, and shared data.
For Moderna, the announcement highlights the potential of mRNA technology beyond infectious diseases, particularly in personalized cancer treatments.
However, the initiative’s overall funding is not revenue awarded to Moderna, and no direct financial benefit has been confirmed.
That distinction matters after the stock’s extraordinary rally in 2026.
Moderna’s Revenue Recovery Still Has a Long Way to Go
According to TIKR data, Moderna generated $6.85 billion in revenue in fiscal 2023, compared with $1.94 billion in fiscal 2025.
Wall Street consensus estimates project revenue reaching $3.39 billion by fiscal 2028, representing approximately 75% growth from 2025 but still less than half its 2023 level.
These forecasts suggest a recovery, but the contribution from Moderna’s cancer vaccine pipeline remains uncertain.
Is Moderna Stock Getting Too Expensive?
At the October 8 close, Moderna traded at approximately 41.3 times next-twelve-month sales, according to TIKR.
That was close to its five-year high of 42.6 times and substantially above its five-year average of 7.3 times.
The October 9 rally pushed its valuation higher, suggesting investors are pricing in significant future growth before any confirmed financial benefit from the NIH initiative.
That leaves little room for disappointment if Moderna’s oncology pipeline fails to deliver.
What Investors Should Watch Next
Moderna’s 14% rally reflected renewed enthusiasm for cancer vaccines following the NIH initiative, alongside its addition to the Nasdaq-100. However, the proposed partnership has not established any direct financial benefit for Moderna.
For investors, the bigger question is whether Moderna’s oncology pipeline can eventually justify its premium valuation. On October 24, the company and Merck (MRK) are scheduled to present Phase 3 data for their personalized melanoma therapy at the ESMO Congress, offering a more concrete test of that potential
Strong results could support expectations for future growth, while disappointing data could challenge the optimism already reflected in Moderna’s share price.
So what is Moderna stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
