Key Takeaways
- Moderna shares jumped 8% after its myeloma therapy, mRNA-2808, showed four confirmed responses among 11 heavily pretreated patients.
- The data shows Moderna’s mRNA can get the body to make three cancer drugs at once, though it’s years from challenging Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Regeneron.
- Every case of cytokine release syndrome was mild, but 41.7% of patients had Grade 3 or worse treatment-related side effects.
- Moderna’s valuation already leans on its pipeline, and it reports third-quarter results on Friday.
Moderna (MRNA) stock is up 8% today after early data on its experimental multiple myeloma therapy, mRNA-2808.
mRNA-2808 gets the body to make three T-cell engagers. Approved drugs from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pfizer (PFE) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) already hit two of its three targets.
What exactly happened
The first 12 patients had a median of 10 prior lines of therapy:
- Four confirmed responses among 11 evaluable patients, some already treated with BCMA- or GPRC5D-directed drugs
- All three T-cell engagers detected in patients’ blood
- No dose-limiting toxicities, but Grade 3 or worse treatment-related side effects in 41.7%
- Cytokine release syndrome in five patients, all Grade 1, without step-up dosing
That last one stands out. The approved bispecifics need step-up doses to manage that.
No threat to the bispecifics yet
J&J’s Tecvayli and Talvey hit BCMA and GPRC5D, and J&J named Tecvayli among its third-quarter oncology growth drivers. But it’s pushing them into earlier lines of treatment, far from mRNA-2808’s patients.
Pfizer sells Elrexfio, a BCMA bispecific, in the late-line setting. Its third-quarter report yesterday also previews Moderna’s on Friday: Comirnaty sales fell 29% operationally, partly on narrower U.S. vaccine recommendations. Will Moderna’s COVID shot show the same drop?
Regeneron’s Lynozyfic, another BCMA bispecific, made $19 million in the third quarter, a sliver of its $5.1 billion of revenue. mRNA-2808 is a long-term question for it at most.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Moderna. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Moderna, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Moderna’s Analyst Ratings
Priced for the pipeline
Moderna’s revenue fell from $6.85 billion in 2023 to $1.94 billion in 2025, and analysts expect $3.34 billion in 2028.
Today’s data won’t change that, since mRNA-2808 is still in Phase 1/2.
Yet the stock traded at 46x forward sales before today’s jump, against a five-year average of 7.9x.
At today’s price, it’s even higher, close to its 52x peak just before leaked melanoma data sent the stock down 18%.
Bottom line: Moderna just showed one mRNA product can make three drugs inside the body, a real win for its platform. But at this multiple, I’d want more than 11 patients before paying up.
Of course, Moderna presents updated data at the American Society of Hematology meeting on Dec. 12.
So what is Moderna stock actually worth?
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