Key Takeaways
- Joby Aviation shares rose 4% after the U.S. Air Force raised its total commitment to Joby’s autonomous flight technology to nearly $37 million.
- The money is a vote of confidence in Joby’s autonomy, but it’s small next to the $564 million of free cash flow Joby burned in 2025.
- Rival Archer Aviation is buying a drone maker with over $200 million in annual revenue.
- Joby reports third-quarter results after today’s close, where its cash use is the number to watch.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock is up 4% today after it said before the open that the U.S. Air Force has added funding for its autonomous flight technology. That brings the Air Force’s total commitment to nearly $37 million and raises the ceiling on Joby’s operational testing contract to $50 million.
It’s a race for military money, and Archer Aviation (ACHR) is running it too.
The Air Force likes what it’s seen
The money funds Joby’s autonomy software and more operational testing in the Pacific. AFWERX’s Kate Brown, who leads its contested logistics tactical airlift work, said in Joby’s release: “Our goal is to sustain cargo operations in contested environments while reducing risk to aircrews and preserving crewed aircraft for missions that require them.”
It adds to Joby’s defense push: in August, it agreed to buy Resonant Sciences for a $500 million base price, mostly in cash.
Real money, but small next to the burn
Analysts expect Joby’s revenue to climb steeply from a low base:
Next to the $121 million analysts expect this year, nearly $37 million is real money. But Joby’s free cash flow has fallen deeper into the red every year since 2021:
Management guides to $385 million to $415 million of cash use in 2026’s second half alone.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Joby Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Joby Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Joby Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
Archer is buying revenue instead
Archer agreed in August to buy Boeing’s Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid, paying Boeing in Archer stock, and expects to close by year end. Insitu is a profitable drone maker with over $200 million in annual revenue, Archer said in its second-quarter shareholder letter.
That dwarfs Joby’s Air Force money, and Archer pays in shares, where Joby’s Resonant deal is mostly cash. Archer reports next week.
Tonight’s report is the bigger test
The Air Force money is a genuine vote of confidence in Joby’s autonomy. But investors in a stock down about two-thirds in 2026 still need two answers: whether Joby can build aircraft fast enough, which Barclays doubts, and how much cash it burns on the way.
Tonight, I’ll be watching cash use against that guidance, and whether the aircraft Joby expects in the second half are coming off the line. Of course, if the Pacific testing goes well, the higher ceiling leaves room for more Air Force money.
So what is Joby Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
