Key Takeaways
- Constellation Energy fell 8% this morning after Democrats won Congress, in a selloff that also hit Vistra, GE Vernova and CoreWeave.
- Its signed deals with Alphabet’s Google and Amazon still stand, so the risk is in future contracts.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS to rise from $9.39 in 2025 to $16.80 in 2028, and that growth needs new buyers.
- At Monday’s close, the stock traded at 21x forward earnings, below its three-year average of 26x.
Constellation Energy (CEG) fell 8% this morning with no news of its own, after Democrats won control of the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s midterms.
Vistra (VST) is down 14%, and GE Vernova (GEV) and CoreWeave (CRWV) are each off 7%. Investors are selling anything tied to the data center buildout, including Constellation’s 3,590-megawatt deal with Google, part of Alphabet (GOOG).
Voters took aim at data centers
At least 10 communities approved bans or restrictions on data centers Tuesday, CNBC reported. In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott after calling for a moratorium on new data centers.
Vistra has a Texas business on the line there, and so does Constellation, through Calpine. Bank of America sees the bigger risk in state and local governments like these.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Constellation Energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Constellation Energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Constellation Energy’s Analyst Ratings
The risk is in the deals still to come
Constellation’s Google and Amazon contracts survive an election. The growth analysts expect depends on new ones:
Management puts each contracted gigawatt of nuclear output at $0.40 to $1.00 of base EPS. I don’t expect Tuesday’s vote to move the 2026 and 2027 estimates much. The jump in 2028 needs buyers to keep signing, and FERC isn’t expected to settle the rules for data centers next to power plants until the first half of 2027.
Alphabet’s cloud revenue grew 103% in the third quarter on what CEO Sundar Pichai called “huge demand for our AI infrastructure and AI solutions.” GE Vernova and CoreWeave sell into that demand too, and GE Vernova raised its guidance again on Oct. 28. The question is how much of it gets built in the places that just voted against data centers.
The price already allows for a slower build
At Monday’s close, Constellation traded at 21x forward earnings, well below its three-year average:
At today’s price, it’s even lower. I wouldn’t sell a nuclear fleet with Google and Amazon under contract because of one election night.
Constellation reports on Nov. 9 and will update how much of its output is under contract. Management has also promised a second look at its $11.50-$12.50 guidance for 2026.
So what is Constellation Energy stock actually worth?
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