Key Takeaways for Microsoft Stock as of August 2026
- Rally From the Lows: Microsoft stock (MSFT) has climbed 33% since its June 30 close of $373, even though the shares still trade 4.6% below where they stood a year ago.
- 45% Line: Azure grew 43% in fiscal Q4, guided toward 45% for Q1.
- Coverage Splits Bullish: Of 53 price targets, the Street counts 39 buys, 14 outperforms, 3 holds and 1 sell, with the $570 mean sitting 14% above the current price of $497.
- Model Upside: TIKR’s mid-case valuation puts Microsoft at $1,159 by mid-2031, implying 133% total return and a 19% annualized rate from current levels.
Why Microsoft Stock Is Still Down 4.6% a Year After a 33% Earnings-Fueled Rally
Microsoft stock (MSFT) sits 4.6% below where it traded a year ago, even after climbing 33% since its June 30 close of $373 to $497 on August 13. The rebound followed a fiscal fourth-quarter report on July 29 that beat estimates across the board: $90 billion in revenue, up 18%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.74, up 23% once adjusted for investment-related swings.
Azure did the heavy lifting. Revenue in the segment grew 43% in the quarter, and Microsoft guided toward roughly 45% growth in constant currency for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Commercial remaining performance obligation, the backlog of contracted but unrecognized revenue, jumped 84% year over year to $678 billion. CFO Amy Hood put the underlying constraint plainly on the Q2 earnings call: “Currently, the situation is obviously that demand exceeds available supply in a sort of relatively extreme moment.” That gap between what customers want and what Microsoft can deliver is what turned an efficiency quarter into an acceleration.
The stock’s response wasn’t isolated. Microsoft was among the megacaps, alongside Meta, Tesla and Nvidia, that helped push the S&P 500 to a record close on August 13. But the one-year comparison still stings. Shares traded near $520 last October before a slide tied to AI capex anxiety dragged them into the $370s by spring, and Microsoft is guiding fiscal 2027 capital expenditures higher again, with the first quarter alone expected to top $50 billion. A 33% snapback doesn’t erase that math. It just means the market has started pricing Azure’s reacceleration ahead of the capex bill.
Microsoft Stock’s AI Stakes Are Now Swinging Its Bottom Line
Microsoft’s own AI bets are turning into an earnings variable. The July 29 results included a $3.2 billion gain tied to its stake in Anthropic, adding $0.27 to diluted earnings per share alongside lighter-than-expected costs from the company’s voluntary retirement program. Its OpenAI stake cut the other way, subtracting $0.07 per share in the same quarter.
Those swings landed the same week a Bloomberg report said OpenAI is on track to generate more than $40 billion in annualized revenue, and IBM said it would join OpenAI’s elite partner tier to build industry-specific AI tools.
For a stock whose quarterly results now carry venture-style marks on its AI partnerships, those gains and losses aren’t a footnote anymore. They’re becoming part of the number investors react to.
Wall Street’s Microsoft Stock Targets Are Catching Up to the Rally
Coverage on Microsoft stock still runs bullish. Of the 53 analysts publishing price targets as of August 13, the Street counts 39 buys, 14 outperforms, 3 holds and 1 sell. The $570 mean target sits 14% above the stock’s $497 price, a gap that has narrowed sharply as shares recovered.
That 14% gap is a shrunken version of what opened during the slide. Microsoft stock closed at $497 on June 30, 2025, with a mean target of $522, a gap of just 5%. By March 31, 2026, the stock had fallen to $370 while the mean target still stood near $587, stretching the gap to 59%, the widest of the past year.
Analysts trimmed their targets only modestly as the stock fell, from $622 in December to $561 by June, which means the wide gap was mostly a function of price falling faster than estimates did. Now that shares have clawed back to $497, the same math runs in reverse: the mean target has ticked up to $570, and the gap has compressed back toward where it stood a year ago.
TIKR Values Microsoft Stock at $1,159, a 133% Return by 2031
TIKR’s mid-case model values Microsoft at $1,159 by mid-2031, implying a 133% total return from the current price of $497, or 19% annualized over 4.9 years.
That return profile puts Microsoft stock among the more growth-heavy mega-cap cloud names, pricing in sustained double-digit revenue growth well beyond the next few quarters of Azure guidance.
The case rests on Azure holding its acceleration path past the 43% posted in fiscal Q4 and the roughly 45% guided for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the same growth trajectory the Street has been re-underwriting in its own targets as the valuation gap recovers from March’s 59% high.
Should You Invest in Microsoft Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Microsoft Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Microsoft Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
