Key Takeaways
- Lucid shares are up 21% in the past week with no company news before its third-quarter report.
- EV stocks bounced after the midterms, while Rivian had upgrades and a gross profit behind its rise.
- Lucid’s cars still cost more to build than they sell for, and most of Uber’s robotaxi order awaits a platform not yet in production.
- The stock is cheap, but the rally looks like a trade until free cash flow improves.
Lucid Group (LCID) stock is up 21% in the past week, with no company news until its third-quarter report after Monday’s close.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) had real news behind its gains. And Uber Technologies (UBER), which reported an 11.5% stake in Lucid in April, is still waiting on its robotaxis.
Nothing from Lucid behind the bounce
Lucid jumped 12% on Wednesday, Nov. 4, after Democrats swept Congress in the midterms, and later climbed with other EV stocks into the report.
Rivian’s rise followed two analyst upgrades on early R2 demand and a third quarter with $176 million of gross profit.
Lucid delivered 3,806 cars that quarter, well short of the 4,687 analysts expected. Over the four quarters to June 30, its gross margin was -100.6%.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Lucid. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Lucid, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Lucid’s Analyst Ratings
Priced for doubt
Analysts expect Lucid’s revenue to rise to $1.55 billion this year, from $1.35 billion in 2025, then more than double in 2027:
The 2026 figure is already down 22% since June 30. With third-quarter deliveries down 4% from the second quarter, I’d expect more cuts.
Lucid traded at 0.6x forward sales on Friday, against a five-year average of 10.5x, and Monday’s gain leaves it well under 1x:
Free cash flow has to improve
Lucid burned $1.48 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter alone. Its third-quarter free cash flow was [Q3 free cash flow], and its gross margin was Q3 gross margin. Up to $800 million of this year’s planned $1.4 billion in cash improvements comes from selling down inventory, and Lucid can only do that once.
Uber has plenty riding on a turnaround. At least 25,000 of the 35,000 vehicles it committed to buy are Midsize robotaxis, with production targeted for late 2028.
Take the profits
If you caught this bounce, I’d take profits. The money keeping Lucid going ranks ahead of common shareholders: about $2.1 billion drawn on a loan from an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and preferred stock with $3.07 billion of liquidation preference at June 30. I’d treat rallies like this as trades and expect more capital raises. Of course, fourth-quarter deliveries come out in early January, and Lucid needs 4,989 to match 2025’s total.
So what is Lucid stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Lucid could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
