Key Takeaways
- Loar Holdings shares jumped 9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will join the S&P SmallCap 600 before the open on November 4.
- Index fund buying is a one-time boost, and Loar’s third-quarter report on November 5 matters more.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS to rise from $1.04 in fiscal 2025 to $1.90 in fiscal 2028, and their 2026 estimate already sits above the top of Loar’s guide.
- The stock came into Monday well below its usual valuation, so another outlook raise on Thursday could mean more upside.
Loar Holdings (LOAR) stock surged 9% on Monday after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the aerospace components supplier will join the S&P SmallCap 600 before the open on Wednesday, November 4. The announcement came after Friday’s close.
Loar takes LiveRamp’s spot, since Publicis Groupe is buying LiveRamp.
Index Funds Have to Buy Loar
Every fund that tracks the index has to own Loar by Wednesday’s open, whatever the price. That’s a one-time wave of demand. After that, Loar goes back to trading on its business.
That business gets tested the next morning, when Loar reports third-quarter results before the open on Thursday, November 5. It raised its 2026 outlook in each of its last two reports, and the August raise put adjusted EPS at $1.32 to $1.36.
Analysts already sit just above that range, at $1.37 for 2026, and expect earnings per share to reach $1.90 by 2028.
That’s 32% growth this year, then roughly 18% a year in 2027 and 2028. Joining an index doesn’t add a dollar to Loar’s sales, so Monday’s news shouldn’t move those estimates.
TIKR Tracks 5 Analysts on Loar Holdings. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Loar Holdings, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Loar Holdings’ Analyst Ratings
Loar Stock Is Near Its Cheapest in a Year
At Friday’s close, Loar traded at 43x forward earnings. That’s less than half its March peak of 95x and well below its one-year average of 62x. After Monday’s jump, it’s about 47x.
Loar’s margins help explain the premium. Its EBITDA margin has held between 33.5% and 35.1% every year from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2025.
Still, 47x is a lot to pay for growth in the high teens.
Loar’s Thursday Report Matters More
I wouldn’t buy Loar for the index news alone. With consensus already above the top of the company’s guide, Thursday needs another outlook raise just to meet expectations. If Loar delivers one, Monday’s jump can hold, and the multiple has room to climb back toward its 62x average. If it doesn’t, the stock could give back the 9% just as fast.
So what is Loar Holdings stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
