Key Takeaways
- Kinder Morgan Executive Chairman Richard Kinder bought 500,000 shares on Nov. 6 for $15 million, with the stock 14% below its 52-week high.
- The purchase adds only about 0.2% to his stake, so it’s a vote of confidence from someone who already has billions in the stock.
- Kinder Morgan’s project backlog hit a record $14.4 billion last quarter, but management says some of 2026’s gains won’t repeat, and analysts expect earnings per share to dip in 2027.
- At 19x forward earnings, close to its five-year average, the stock’s numbers back his buy, though the Street’s average target needs a richer multiple than the stock usually gets.
Kinder Morgan (KMI) Executive Chairman Richard D. Kinder bought 500,000 shares of his company’s stock on Friday, Nov. 6, at an average price of $29.99, or $15 million in all, according to a Form 4 filed the same day. He made the purchase with the stock 14% below its 52-week high of $34.81, set in May.
Record results, with an asterisk
Kinder Morgan reported its best third quarter ever on Oct. 21. Adjusted EPS rose 21% from a year earlier to $0.35. It also added $5.4 billion of new projects, taking its backlog to a record $14.4 billion. And management now expects 2026 adjusted EPS to beat its $1.36 budget by more than 13%.
Some of that won’t repeat, though. On the third-quarter call, management said about $225 million of 2026’s outperformance came from items that may not recur, like Winter Storm Fern and a terminals contract buyout. CEO Kim Dang put it plainly: “’26, because it has some of these items, is going to be a difficult year to replicate.”
Analysts expect earnings per share to slip in 2027 and then grow again in 2028:
I don’t see anything in the quarter that should push those estimates lower. The dip comes from the one-offs dropping out, and the two biggest new pipelines don’t start up until 2030.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Kinder Morgan. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Kinder Morgan, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Kinder Morgan’s Analyst Ratings
A small slice of a huge stake
After the buy, Kinder owns 246,712,353 shares, so the purchase grew his stake by about 0.2%. At the $29.99 he paid, that stake is worth about $7.4 billion, or roughly 11% of the company. Next to that, $15 million is small.
Still, an executive chairman buying with his own cash is worth watching (here’s how to track the stocks insiders are buying). On the call, Kinder made his case for the company: “For me, it’s hard to think of a better strategy that combines consistent growth with minimal risk.”
Does $29.99 add up?
Kinder paid almost exactly the Nov. 6 close, when the stock traded at 19x forward earnings:
That’s slightly above its five-year average of 18x. So he paid a fair price for a business that’s growing its earnings.
The Street is more excited. Its average price target has climbed from $31.16 a year ago to $37.50:
That’s 25% above what Kinder paid. But $37.50 works out to roughly 24x the next 12 months’ expected earnings. That’s near the top of the stock’s five-year range, for earnings expected to dip next year. It looks generous to me.
Kinder’s buy holds up
Bottom line: the numbers back Kinder’s buy. He paid close to the stock’s usual multiple for a record backlog and EPS that analysts expect to climb from $1.30 in 2025 to $1.65 in 2028. The risk is spending. Dang expects capital spending of around $4 billion a year for the next few years, and free cash flow after capital spending and dividends was just $230 million through September. One insider’s buy is only a signal. The next real test is Kinder Morgan’s 2027 budget, which management is working on now and which will show how much of this year’s outperformance goes away.
So what is Kinder Morgan stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
