Key Takeaways
- IonQ rose another 9% today after Friday’s 23% jump, and Rigetti and D-Wave rallied ahead of their own reports.
- IonQ’s higher guidance is real, but analysts’ estimates already include it, so I wouldn’t chase the stock here.
- Nearly half of IonQ’s third-quarter revenue came from its new chip foundry, and its losses are still getting bigger.
- Rigetti and D-Wave report Tuesday, and lock-ups on some IonQ shares end Nov. 14.
IonQ (IONQ) is up another 9% today. That’s on top of a 23% jump on Friday after its third-quarter beat and raised guidance.
The rest of the group is up too: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is up 9% and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is up 7%.
The beat was real, and so was the help
Third-quarter revenue rose 336% to $173.8 million, and IonQ raised its 2026 guidance to $505 million to $515 million, from $450 million to $460 million. But SkyWater, the chip foundry IonQ bought in July, supplied $83.5 million of that revenue. IonQ’s own platform grew 127% to $90.3 million.
Analysts expect revenue to keep climbing, to $858 million in 2027 and $1.12 billion in 2028.
The $511 million consensus for 2026 is already at the middle of the new guidance range, and nothing in today’s news should change it.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on IonQ. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IonQ, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IonQ’s Analyst Ratings
Cheaper than it was, but still losing more
Before Friday, IonQ’s forward price/sales had fallen to 15x, its lowest in five years. It closed Friday at 17x.
Today’s jump takes it even higher. And the adjusted EBITDA loss grew to $133.6 million from $48.9 million a year earlier.
Analysts haven’t chased the rally, either. The consensus target has slid to $60 from $75 a year ago.
Rigetti and D-Wave have to show their own numbers
Rigetti and D-Wave rallied on IonQ’s results, and on Tuesday they report their own. IonQ said in September that its revenue is about twice that of all the other listed quantum companies put together.
D-Wave pays IonQ’s foundry to make part of its chips, and its first-half bookings rose to $35.5 million from $2.9 million. Tuesday will show us whether those orders are turning into revenue.
Meanwhile, Rigetti’s $100 million CHIPS award hasn’t reached revenue yet. Can its sales keep up with two days of gains?
I’d let this one cool off
After two days like these, I wouldn’t chase IonQ. I’d want to see the 2027 estimates go up first, especially while losses keep growing. And lock-ups on certain IonQ shares, warrants and options end on Nov. 14.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
