Key Stats for Tesla Stock
- 1-year price change for Tesla stock: 37%
- $TSLA Share Price as of Mar. 23: $381
- 52-Week High: $499
- $TSLA Stock Price Target: $421
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What Happened?
Tesla (TSLA) stock is back in the spotlight for the wrong reasons. Last week, HSBC cut its 12-month price target on Tesla from $133 to $119, while keeping its “Sell” rating firmly in place. At the current share price of $381, that target implies a staggering 70% drop from here.
HSBC isn’t new to this view. The bank has been bearish on Tesla stock for over a year, flagging concerns about brand damage in Europe and lost market share to Chinese rivals like BYD.
Its latest note suggests those problems aren’t going away — and that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is unlikely to be the fix bulls are counting on.
The timing is notable. Just a day earlier, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration escalated its investigation into Tesla’s FSD system.
The probe — covering 3.2 million vehicles, including the Model S, X, 3, Y, and Cybertruck — is examining whether FSD can safely handle low-visibility conditions such as fog and sun glare.
In crashes reviewed by the agency, FSD reportedly failed to detect deteriorating camera visibility until moments before impact. One incident involved a Tesla driver using FSD, striking and killing a pedestrian.
That’s a serious headline for any company betting its future on autonomous driving.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About TSLA Stock
Tesla stock sits in an uncomfortable middle ground right now. Wall Street’s consensus rating is a Hold, with an average 12-month price target of $422 — 10% above where the stock trades today. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
The analyst community is split.
- Stifel Nicolaus issued a $508 target as recently as March 17, and Morgan Stanley put out a $415 target the same day.
- But HSBC’s $119 sits at the other extreme, reflecting genuine concern that Tesla’s core car business is weakening while FSD remains unproven at scale.
The FSD story is the one to watch. Tesla has built much of its long-term valuation case around autonomous driving.
CEO Elon Musk has been promising self-driving cars for over a decade, and the company launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin last summer.
But the NHTSA investigation adds real regulatory risk to that timeline. Critics have long argued that Tesla’s camera-only approach to autonomous driving is a fundamental flaw — and the latest safety probe gives those arguments more weight.
On the competitive front, Nvidia unveiled a new AI model for autonomous vehicles at CES in January. Musk publicly downplayed the threat, suggesting it would take five to six years before it becomes meaningful competition.
NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang called Tesla’s FSD stack “world-class” — but also made clear NVIDIA is building technology for every automaker, not just Tesla.
Put it all together, and Tesla stock faces a tough road in the near term. The valuation still prices in a lot of optimism around FSD and robotaxis. If either of those stories stumbles further, the downside HSBC is warning about starts to look less extreme.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
