TC Energy (TRP) reported comparable EBITDA of $2.7 billion in Q3 2025, up from $2.4 billion a year earlier, reflecting more substantial contributions from its natural gas pipeline network and the completion of major assets such as the Southeast Gateway Pipeline in Mexico. Comparable earnings were $0.8 billion, or $0.77 per share, in line with expectations, while net income attributable to common shares came in at $0.8 billion or $0.78 per share.
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CEO François Poirier reaffirmed TC Energy’s forecast of 5–7% annual EBITDA growth through 2028, citing long-term, contracted pipeline assets and power partnerships as the foundation of its predictable returns. The company sanctioned an additional $0.7 billion in new growth projects during the quarter, bringing total sanctioned developments over the past year to $5 billion, most of which are backed by 20-year take-or-pay or cost-of-service contracts.
The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, or $3.40 annualized, marking 25 consecutive years of dividend growth. TC Energy continues to emphasize capital discipline, maintaining a secured $21 billion capital program with clear visibility on future cash flows and a strong balance sheet supported by $7.9 billion in committed credit facilities.
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Financial Story
Q3 2025 results reinforced TC Energy’s ability to grow profitably without increasing risk. Total revenue rose 10% year over year to $3.7 billion, reflecting improved utilization and rate adjustments across its Canadian, U.S., and Mexican gas pipeline systems. Comparable EBITDA growth of $242 million was driven by higher transportation rates on the Columbia Gas and NGTL systems and the ramp-up of the Southeast Gateway Pipeline in Mexico.
| Metric | Q3 2025 | YoY Change | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | C$3.7B | +10% | Strong growth in gas transportation |
| Net Income (Attributable to Common Shares) | C$0.8B | -38% | Reflects divestitures and FX headwinds |
| Comparable EBITDA | C$2.7B | +13% | Driven by gas and power segments |
| Comparable EPS | C$0.77 | -10% | Slight dip due to divestitures |
| Capital Spending (YTD) | C$5.8B | Flat | Continued focus on regulated assets |
| Annualized Dividend | C$3.40 | +5% | 25th consecutive yearly increase |
| Net Debt | C$56B | Flat | Stable leverage under 5x EBITDA |
| Secured Capital Program | C$21B | — | Long-term projects through 2030 |
The company’s comparable earnings per share (EPS) declined slightly year over year from $0.86 to $0.77, reflecting asset divestitures and currency effects, but underlying cash flow from operations remained robust. TC Energy generated $3.9 billion in funds from operations during the first nine months of the year, funding both dividends and capital investments without a material increase in net debt.
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Broader Market Context
TC Energy’s updated financial outlook through 2028 reflects strong fundamentals in North American natural gas and power infrastructure. With 17 Bcf/d of pipeline capacity in development, management highlighted that rising U.S. gas exports, data center demand, and the shift toward low-carbon electricity generation are key long-term growth drivers.
The company’s focus on low-risk, long-term contracted projects continues to differentiate it from its peers. Roughly 95% of its EBITDA is underpinned by cost-of-service or take-or-pay contracts, limiting exposure to commodity prices. With inflation moderating and interest rates stabilizing, TC Energy’s predictable cash flow profile positions it well to deliver stable earnings and dividend growth over the decade.
1. Natural Gas Pipelines Drive Core Growth
The backbone of TC Energy’s portfolio remains its North American natural gas pipeline network, which saw higher throughput and rate adjustments across both the NGTL and Columbia Gas systems. Canadian Natural Gas EBITDA rose to C$913 million, up from C$845 million a year earlier, driven by expansion projects and flow-through income. In the U.S., Columbia Gas delivered higher earnings following new rate structures and incremental capacity projects.
This steady pipeline growth highlights TC Energy’s execution strength in regulated markets. With the Southeast Gateway and multiple U.S. expansions now operational, the company is targeting $4 billion in new capacity additions in 2026. These assets are designed to meet the growing demand from LNG terminals and power generation customers, reinforcing their role as key enablers of the North American energy transition.
2. Power and Energy Solutions Expand Visibility
Beyond pipelines, TC Energy’s Power and Energy Solutions segment continues to build value through its partnership in Bruce Power, Canada’s largest nuclear generator. Bruce Power contributed consistent cash flow as its life extension projects remain on track, including major refurbishments of Units 3, 4, and 5, scheduled between 2026 and 2030. Each modernization project strengthens TC Energy’s exposure to reliable, non-emitting baseload generation.
This division is becoming increasingly important as decarbonization accelerates across Canada and the U.S. Management expects power EBITDA to grow 6–8% annually through 2028, supported by rising capacity payments and stable long-term contracts with the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO). The business adds diversification and provides a counterbalance to commodity-linked volatility in energy markets
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3. Balance Sheet Strength and Dividend Durability
Financial flexibility remains a defining strength for TC Energy. The company reported a CET1-equivalent leverage ratio below 5x, backed by over C$7.9 billion in committed credit facilities and access to an additional C$2 billion at subsidiaries. Recent debt issuance, including US$1.6 billion in senior notes at an average coupon of 5.6%, helped refinance maturities without increasing overall leverage.
This balance sheet stability supports both its 3–5% annual dividend growth guidance and sustained capital investment. With $21 billion of secured projects and a visible pipeline of regulated growth opportunities, TC Energy remains positioned to maintain predictable returns while reducing risk exposure. For income-oriented investors, the company’s 4.5% yield and history of dividend reliability offer long-term appeal.
The TIKR Takeaway
TC Energy’s Q3 performance reaffirmed its reputation for steady execution, low-risk growth, and predictable cash flows. With regulated pipelines driving earnings, a stable dividend track record, and diversified exposure through Bruce Power, the company has built one of the most durable business models in the North American midstream sector.
The extension of its 5–7% annual EBITDA growth outlook through 2028 demonstrates confidence in both project visibility and balance sheet strength. While policy delays or cost inflation could introduce short-term pressure, TC Energy’s contracted portfolio and disciplined capital program make it a cornerstone holding for investors seeking stability amid volatile energy markets.
Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold TC Energy’s Stock in 2025?
At roughly C$75.70 per share, TC Energy trades at about 10.5x forward earnings and yields 4.5%, aligning with its historical valuation range. The combination of steady pipeline growth, stable cash flow, and reliable dividends supports long-term holding, though limited near-term upside tempers the risk/reward profile. Investors seeking income stability may continue to hold, while new buyers might wait for a more attractive entry point.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
