Key Stats for Hims & Hers Stock
- Current Price: $28.84
- Target Price (Mid): ~$26
- Street Target: ~$31
- Potential Total Return: ~(11%)
- Annualized IRR: ~(3%) / year
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What Happened?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) has lost more than half its value since its 2025 high, yet the most revealing number is not on the price chart. Run TIKR’s valuation model on mid-case assumptions and fair value lands near $26, slightly below the August 28 close of $28.84. After a punishing year, the model is quietly saying the stock is no longer cheap.
The margin and retention inflection management spent most of its Q2 call describing, driven by a new AI-native care platform, either shows up in the numbers or it does not. If it does, the model is too cautious, and the consensus is too low. If it does not, there is no upside from today’s price, and the legal and billing noise dragging the stock lower is the least of the problems.
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The number that decides it is margin, and the lever is AI
The mid-case model assumes revenue growth cools sharply from today’s 40%, tracking consensus estimates that step down from roughly 36% in 2026 to 24% in 2027 and into the low teens by 2028. On those inputs, paired with a net margin building toward about 7%, the model lands near a $26 target and an annualized return of roughly negative 3% over the next four-plus years. Consensus alone does not justify $28.84.
On the Q2 call, CTO Mohamed ElShenawy said the new AI-native experience for Hers weight-loss customers drove subscribers to send three times as many messages, with AI answering 80% of their questions, while non-clinical support tasks handled by staff fell nearly 50%. “We are making AI load-bearing, not decorative,” he said. The reason it matters for valuation: higher engagement historically lowers cancellations, and lower cost-to-serve widens margins. Early cohorts on the new experience are already showing lower cancellation rates, per management, and CFO Yemi Okupe guided to an adjusted EBITDA step-up in the second half with the AI investments paying back within 12 to 18 months.
Truist raised its target to $32 on August 25, projecting adjusted EBITDA margins on branded GLP-1 products climbing from 5% in Q2 toward 16.5% in the back half, with compounded products moving from 15.5% to 18.5%.
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Cheap against the Street, expensive against its own earnings
Shares trade around 2.0x next-twelve-month enterprise value to revenue, roughly half the 4.9x the market paid on the same forward basis in late 2025, and the Street mean target near $31 sits just above the current price, backed by 1 buy, 2 outperforms, 11 holds, and 1 underperform. Yet trailing earnings are negative: the company posted an $86 million net loss in Q2 on legal and acquisition charges, and free cash flow was negative $68 million as working capital absorbed the branded weight-loss ramp.
HIMS is priced like a company whose growth is real but whose profitability is unproven. The bull view is that 40% revenue growth, a global platform after the Eucalyptus acquisition, and five US specialties already above a $100 million annual run rate give management the scale to convert volume into margin, the same playbook that expanded margins in sexual health and hair loss as those categories scaled.
The counterweight is that gross margins are structurally lower now; they fell to 64% in Q2 as branded GLP-1s and international revenue carry thinner economics, and Okupe said plainly they will “remain below the levels we have historically achieved.” Regulatory pressure sharpens the risk. An FTC suit alleging deceptive cancellation and data practices, which the company says it will defend, and a Visa billing probe first reported by Bloomberg, both strike at the subscription engine, and forced changes to billing flows tend to raise churn.
The base grew to nearly 3 million subscribers, and testosterone, launched three quarters ago, is scaling faster than any specialty outside weight loss and is on track to become the sixth US category above a $100 million run rate.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $28.84
- Target Price (Mid): ~$26
- Potential Total Return: ~(11%)
- Annualized IRR: ~(3%) / year
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The mid-case is deliberately the sobering one, and it is worth understanding why it lands below the price. It carries HIMS forward on mid-case assumptions built off consensus, where revenue growth decelerates steadily from 40% and net margin builds toward roughly 7%. The two revenue drivers that could bend it higher are the international markets inherited from Eucalyptus, where the UK, Australia, and Germany each already clear $100 million in annualized revenue, and the specialty expansion into testosterone, peptides, and longevity that deepens spend per subscriber. The margin driver is the AI-and-scale efficiency management is betting on. The primary risk is that regulatory action forces costlier billing and higher churn before those efficiencies compound.
The upside case is straightforward: if the back-half margin step-up Truist and management describe actually shows up, consensus is too low, and both the estimates and the model reprice higher. The downside is equally clear: if legal and billing pressure raise churn while margins stay compressed, the stock has no valuation cushion to fall back on.
Conclusion
Watch the third-quarter print, guided to $880 million to $900 million in revenue with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 10% at the midpoint. That margin line is the whole thesis. If Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin lands at or above 10% with cancellation rates falling on the AI cohorts, the efficiency story is converting, and the model’s caution looks misplaced. If margin stalls near Q2’s 8% while the legal overhang drags on retention, the market was right to keep selling. Management is expected to report in early November.
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Should You Invest in Hims & Hers?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Hims & Hers, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
