Key Stats for AXON Stock
- Past week performance: 0.5%
- 52-week range: $339.01 to $792.16
- Valuation model target price: $683
- Implied upside: 13.7% over 2.3 years
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Record Growth, Measured Reaction
Axon (AXON) has been roughly flat this week, but that quiet trading masks a stock still digesting one of its strongest quarters on record. Shares sit well below their 52-week high of $792.16, even after the company beat estimates and raised guidance in early August.
Q2 revenue jumped 35% year over year to $904 million, marking Axon’s tenth straight quarter of growth above 30%. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.88, and management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 32% to 34%, up from 30% to 32% previously. Annual recurring revenue reached $1.6 billion, up 39%, and net revenue retention held at 126%.
The standout story was Dedrone, Axon’s counter-drone business, which surpassed $100 million in quarterly revenue for the first time after supporting all 11 U.S. World Cup stadiums. That pushed Platform Solutions revenue up 123% to $150 million. Software and services revenue grew 36% to $398 million, and the AI Era Plan surged nearly 700% year over year.
CEO Rick Smith seemed genuinely surprised by the momentum on the earnings call. He said, “I was just looking at the numbers, thirty-nine percent. Wow,” referring to Axon’s annual recurring revenue growth. Insider sales during the quarter included routine transactions by Smith and other executives.
Those sales occurred under prearranged trading plans and drew some attention from investors. They reflect normal diversification rather than a change in the company’s outlook. If AXON stock stays this quiet while fundamentals keep improving, the gap between price and performance could eventually close.
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Is Axon Stock Still a Bargain After This Run?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 30.8%
- Operating Margins: 6.0%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 66.9x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $683, implying 13.7% total upside from the current share price and an annualized return of 5.6% over the next 2.3 years.
That annualized return sits below the 9% threshold many investors use to call a stock moderately attractive, so Axon’s valuation leaves less room for error than its growth headlines suggest. The stock’s NTM P/E of about 67x already prices in years of continued expansion, and its LTM EBIT margin of just 1.7% shows profitability still has a long way to catch up to revenue growth.
Product mix is the key swing factor. A greater share of services and new hardware, including Dedrone and body cameras, has weighed on adjusted gross margin, which slipped 40 basis points to 62.9% this quarter. Software-only margins remain above 80%, so the mix shift, not underlying unit economics, explains the pressure.
Compared with its own five-year history, where EBITDA CAGR ran at 45.1%, Axon’s current growth pace is actually accelerating even as margins compress. That combination is why the stock trades at a premium multiple despite a modest projected annualized return.
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Axon Versus Public Safety Peers: Motorola Solutions and L3Harris
Axon’s closest public safety comparison is Motorola Solutions (MSI), a much larger and more mature player in radios, dispatch software, and video security. Motorola trades at a forward P/E near 28x with revenue growth around 8% to 9%, a fraction of Axon’s forward two-year revenue CAGR of 31.3%. Axon’s NTM P/E of roughly 67x more than doubles Motorola’s multiple, reflecting the market’s bet that Axon’s AI-driven platform can keep compounding faster for longer.
L3Harris Technologies (LHX), a defense and public safety technology provider, trades at a forward P/E near 18x with revenue growth closer to 4% to 5%. Both peers grow far slower than Axon, but they also carry thinner premiums, which highlights how much of Axon’s valuation depends on sustaining its current growth rate.
Axon’s moat comes from its integrated ecosystem, spanning TASER devices, body cameras, cloud software, and counter-drone technology, all sold to the same public safety customers. That bundling makes it harder for point solution competitors to displace Axon once an agency is onboarded.
What’s Driving AXON Stock Going Forward?
Federal expansion is the clearest near-term catalyst. Axon was named a participant in the $1.5 billion Department of Homeland Security counter-UAS program, and management expects federal momentum to build further as Dedrone deployments extend beyond stadium security into data centers and corporate campuses.
International and enterprise bookings are also accelerating, with both categories roughly tripling year over year in Q2. Three of the top five AI Era Plan deals closed internationally, suggesting Axon’s platform is resonating well beyond its traditional U.S. law enforcement base.
Future contracted bookings rose 41% to $15.1 billion, and management expects five-year normalized bookings growth to stay above 30% into 2026. That backlog gives investors visibility into revenue well beyond the current quarter.
Management also flagged Q4 as typically its strongest seasonal quarter, similar to 2025 patterns, so investors should expect growth and bookings momentum to build further into year-end.
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Should You Invest in Axon?
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Pull up AXON, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
