Key Stats for TJX Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +2%
- 52-Week Range: $112.1 to $162.7
- Current Price: $161.7
What Happened?
TJX shattered the $60B annual sales barrier in FY26 while closing at $161.66, just cents below its 52-week high of $162.68.
Following the February 25 earnings beat, ten firms raised price targets on TJX, led by BTIG lifting its target to $185 from $165.
Q4 comparable sales surged 5%, beating the 3.6% estimate, as both higher average baskets and increased customer transactions drove the outperformance across all divisions.
The market re-rates TJX from a defensive discount play to an offensive market-share aggressor, now trading at 30x forward earnings versus 28x just three months ago.
Furthermore, CEO Ernie Herrman stated on the Q4 earnings call that “availability of merchandise continues to be exceptional,” contextualizing TJX’s position to capitalize on a glutted supply market entering FY27.
Jefferies (JEF) raised its price target to $305 from $285 on February 26, reinforcing institutional confidence in TJX’s ability to sustain above-consensus earnings growth despite conservative FY27 guidance.
With a long-term store target of 7,000 locations and Spain expansion launching this spring, TJX’s global off-price dominance will prove increasingly difficult for competitors to challenge.
Wall Street’s Take on TJX Stock
TJX’s Q4 comparable sales surge of 5% directly confirms the forward revenue growth trajectory, reinforcing FY27 guidance of $62.7B to $63.3B in consolidated sales.
Revenue accelerated from 4% YoY growth in FY25 to 7.1% in FY26, while normalized EPS climbed from $4.26 to $4.73, an 11% gain, signaling sustained fundamental momentum.
Wall Street stands at 16 buys, 3 outperforms, 1 hold, and 1 sell as of February 27, with a mean price target of $171.33, implying 6% upside from current levels.
Analysts set a low target of $100 and a high of $193, with the high hinging on sustained 5%-plus comps and the low reflecting tariff-driven margin compression materializing faster than guided.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s mid-case model targets $202.36 by January 31, with a total return of 25.2% over 4.9 years. The annualized IRR of 4.7% suggests the market is pricing TJX close to fair value today.
The market underestimates TJX’s pricing power, despite customer value perception actually improving over the last six months per management’s own survey data.
Furthermore, the mid-case net income margin forecast expands to 9.3%, well above the current 8.8%, a gap the stock’s 30x forward P/E does not yet fully reward.
Critically, management’s stated ability to offset all FY27 tariff pressure, combined with 1,400 buyers navigating a glutted supply market, makes this margin expansion far more credible than the market currently prices.
If FY27 comparable sales fall below 2%, the P/E multiple contracts an estimated 2.8%, directly compressing the mid-case target price of $202.36.
Q1 FY27 earnings in May will confirm whether the strong start management cited on February 25 translates into a comp beat above 3%.
TJX is fairly valued today but becomes a compelling buy on any pullback below $155, where the model’s 25.2% total return potential genuinely accelerates.
Should You Invest in TJX Companies, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up TJX stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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