Key Takeaways
- GE Vernova is 27% below its summer high, even after a third quarter in which orders rose 96% organically and management raised its 2026 guidance.
- Guggenheim cut its price target to $1,400 from $1,450 on Monday but kept its Buy rating, implying 60% upside.
- The stock trades at 37x forward earnings, its lowest in at least a year, while analysts expect earnings per share to more than double from 2026 to 2028.
- Reaching $1,400 would take a multiple above the stock’s one-year average, so the $1,195 consensus target looks like the more realistic stop.
GE Vernova (GEV) beat expectations and raised its 2026 outlook last week, and the stock still sits 27% below its summer high. Guggenheim is sticking with it: on Monday, analyst Joseph Osha trimmed the firm’s price target to $1,400 from $1,450 and kept his Buy rating.
The slide started in July
It started with the second-quarter report on July 22. Power’s organic revenue grew 14%, short of its 15%-17% guidance, as heavy-duty gas shipments fell to 3.3 gigawatts from 5.2 GW a year earlier.
Then the AI worries hit. On Oct. 22, GE Vernova fell nearly 11% in a day after Meta’s earnings. CEO Scott Strazik puts about 20% of its gas demand with data centers.
The Oct. 28 results were strong: orders rose 96% organically to $29.3 billion, and management raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance to $16-$17 billion, from $11.5-$12.5 billion. But Strazik said fourth-quarter gas orders will carry a lower price per kilowatt than the third quarter’s, with “fewer aeroderivatives and relatively more 50-hertz units” in the mix. He still expects 2026’s gas orders to be priced about 50% higher per kilowatt than 2025’s.
Guggenheim barely budged
Osha’s $1,400 implies [60%] upside. That’s 17% above the consensus target and near the top of the Street’s $940-$1,450 range.
Anyone paying for that much upside is betting on the backlog. It reached $197 billion in the third quarter, and management expects it to top $200 billion this quarter.
TIKR tracks 38 analysts on GE Vernova. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on GE Vernova, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See GE Vernova’s Analyst Ratings
Does $1,400 add up?
Analysts haven’t followed the stock down. Thirty-eight cover it, and their consensus target has held near $1,200 since June, up from $679 a year ago:
They expect normalized EPS to more than double, from $15.62 in 2026 to $37.11 in 2028 (2025’s $16.67 includes a $2.9 billion tax benefit, so 2026 only looks like a dip):
And analysts went higher after the quarter: their 2027 consensus has risen 5% in the past month.
So the stock got cheaper as the outlook improved. At Friday’s close, GE Vernova traded at 37x forward earnings, its lowest in at least a year, against a one-year average of 55x and an April peak of 70x:
Guggenheim’s $1,400 works out to about 61x expected earnings over the next twelve months. That’s above the one-year average, though well short of April’s peak.
A rebound, just a smaller one
The risk I’d watch is the cash. Of the quarter’s $5.4 billion of free cash flow, $5.3 billion came from working capital, mostly customers’ down payments, and GE Vernova owes those customers turbines and grid gear in return.
With estimates rising and the multiple at a one-year low, I think a rebound makes sense. But reaching $1,400 would take a richer multiple than investors have paid on average over the past year. The $1,195 consensus target, 37% above today’s price, looks like the more realistic stop.
The fourth-quarter report, likely in late January, will show us whether gas pricing held up better than management warned, and whether the backlog clears $200 billion.
So what is GE Vernova stock actually worth?
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