Key Takeaways for Formula One Stock as of August 2026
- Three-Month Recovery: Formula One stock has gained 12% since early June, recovering from the calendar disruption caused by Middle East race cancellations while posting record attendance across all 10 races held through Belgium.
- Wall Street Split: Analysts rate the stock 11 buys, 3 outperforms, and 2 holds, with the $120 mean target 18% above the current $102.
- TIKR Upside: The model targets $157 by December 2030, or 54% total return.
- Calendar Repair: Malaysia’s October 4 replacement for the Bahrain GP lifts the 2026 calendar to 23 races, and management confirmed plans for a full 24-race slate in 2027.
Why Formula One Stock Has Rallied 12% in Three Months Despite Losing Four Races
Formula One stock (FWONK) has climbed 12% since early June, clawing back most of the ground it lost when the Iran war forced cancellations of the Saudi Arabian and Bahrain Grands Prix in April. The stock bottomed near $85 in late March as the 2026 calendar shrank from 24 to 22 races. It started climbing once Liberty Media found replacements and the underlying business outgrew the disrupted race count.
The calendar gap dominated the reported numbers. Q2 revenue fell 38% year over year to $764 million because the quarter held five races instead of nine. But every commercial metric outside the race count pointed up: all 10 races through Belgium sold out, five set new attendance records, and Silverstone drew 564,000 fans, the largest single-race crowd in the sport’s history. Apple TV viewership in the U.S. rose 13% season to date. Paddock Club capacity sold out through the rest of the year, and licensing kept growing.
F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali, addressing the Q2 results on August 6, put a point on the disconnect between the headline revenue drop and the demand picture: “The news I knew would become reality is that attendance is up, audiences are up, digital numbers are growing and the fans are enjoying what they are seeing.” That demand picture hardened when Formula One announced Malaysia’s Sepang circuit on July 26 as the replacement host for the Bahrain GP on October 4, bringing the season back to 23 races.
Two other developments cleared overhangs during the run. Max Verstappen extended his Red Bull contract through 2030 on August 20, ending months of speculation about a possible exit to Mercedes or McLaren. And Liberty Media priced a $600 million convertible bond offering on August 11 at a $139 conversion price, a 35% premium to the stock’s close, using proceeds to refinance 2027 notes and push maturities out to 2032. Neither directly shifted earnings power, but both removed uncertainty the market had carried since early in the year.
The stock has regained 12%, yet the Street’s $120 target still sits 18% above, pricing a full calendar normalization the market has not finished absorbing.
Formula One stock trades at 5.69x NTM EV/Revenue, 11% below the 6.38x multiple it carried a year ago. The rally has come from earnings catching up to the price, not from investors bidding the multiple higher, which means the stock is cheaper on a forward basis today than it was before the calendar disruption started.
Analysts Have Lifted Formula One Stock Targets to a New High While Dropping Their Last Sell
Wall Street currently rates Formula One stock at 11 buys, 3 outperforms, and 2 holds. Sixteen analysts publish price targets, and their $120 mean sits 18% above the $102 close.
A year ago the mean target stood at $109 with the stock at $105, leaving a thin 4% cushion. Targets climbed to $119 by December 2025, then held at $115 through the first half of 2026 even as the stock slid to $85 on the calendar scare. The single sell rating that had persisted since mid-2025 disappeared by June 2026. And the August reading shows the Street’s mean at $120, its highest in the table’s history, while the target high narrowed from $140 to $134, a sign that the bull case tightened but the consensus lifted.
That pattern, targets rising steadily while the lone dissenter exits and coverage holds at 16, matches the thesis the price is building: F1’s commercial base is durable enough to grow through calendar shocks.
TIKR Values Formula One Stock at $157, Pricing 8% Annual Revenue Growth Through 2035
TIKR’s mid-case model values Formula One at $157 by December 2030, implying 54% total return from the current $102 price, or 11% annualized over 4.3 years.
An 11% annualized return over a four-plus-year horizon sits above what most media properties offer at current valuations, reflecting the revenue visibility that long-term race-promotion contracts, multi-year broadcast deals, and annual sponsorship escalators provide.
The model’s mid-case bakes in 8% revenue growth (CAGR) through 2035, a rate the business has exceeded at 31.4% over the past five years and one that looks conservative with a normalized calendar, expanding sprint races, and a licensing business still in early innings. The Street’s $120 target captures the near-term calendar recovery; TIKR’s $157 prices in the compounding beyond it.
Is 54% total return realistic for Formula One stock at $102? Run the numbers on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Formula One Group?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
